In Donbas, 12 fuel tanks near a railway station are on fire and man, is it bright.  It's like hell on Earth over there.  Hope they didn't need that for anything.

In other good news, a Kadyrovite (pro-Putin chechens infamous for larping as soldiers, shooting at nothing, and posting it on tiktok) base was hit in Kherson region, killing at least 40 and wounding at least 200

There's a video going around of them covered in ash and some bleeding very noticeably from the head and/or nose without any sort of medical attention or concern "celebrating" their apparent survival.  Tell that to the staph infection.

ISW assessment Oct 26

QuoteA Reuters investigation of a document trove found in an abandoned Russian command post in Balakliya, Kharkiv Oblast, supports ISW's longstanding assessments about the poor condition of Russian forces. ISW has long assessed that the conventional Russian military in Ukraine is severely degraded and has largely lost offensive capabilities since the summer of 2022, that Russian strategic commanders have been micromanaging operational commanders' decisions on tactical matters, and that Russian morale is very low. Reuters' investigation found that Russian units near Balakliya were severely understrength, with a combat battalion at 19.6-percent strength and a reserve unit at 23-percent strength.[1] The investigation found that poor morale, bad logistics, and overbearing commanders contributed to Russian forces' poor performance

QuoteRussian President Vladimir Putin's rhetoric indicates that he is not interested in negotiating seriously with Ukraine and retains maximalist objectives for the war. Putin stated that Ukraine has "lost sovereignty" in a meeting with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) security officials on October 26.[5] Putin stated that the United States is using Ukraine as a "battering ram" against Russia, the Russian-Belarusian Union State, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and the CIS. Russian State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin amplified this narrative, stating that "Ukraine has lost the ability to exist as a state," "Ukraine is occupied by NATO," and "[Ukraine] has become a colony of the US" on October 26.[6] This language is incompatible with negotiations on an equal basis for a ceasefire, let alone a resolution to the conflict that Russia began. It instead strongly suggests that the Kremlin still seeks a military victory in Ukraine and regime change in Kyiv that would affect the permanent reorientation of Ukraine away from the West and into Russia's control.

QuoteKherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo stated on October 26 that it would be "practically impossible" to completely destroy the dam at the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant (HPP) and that even the destruction of the dam locks at the HPP would only cause the water level of the Dnipro River to rise less than 2 meters.[7] Saldo's statement directly contradicts his own prior statements and the warnings made by Commander of Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine Army General Sergey Surovikin on October 18 that Ukraine is planning to strike the Kakhovka HPP and cause flood damage along the Dnipro River. [8] Saldo's apparent retraction of his own warnings may suggest that he seeks to quell anxiety accompanying the mass movement of civilians and Russian military and occupation elements across the Dnipro in order to preserve his own ability to rule.

Infantryman's Uplifting Primer:


The otherwise bizarre actions and attitudes make more sense when realizing that they've essentially been cut off from the world and been fed lies by a dictator almost their entire lives.  The "saving the Ukrainian population from genocide" lie has aged particularly poorly, with numerous examples of exactly that from the Russian side.

Though you'd think at least a few of them would figure out that Ukraine being destitute doesn't jive with them generally living much better than Russians.

Also, the idea that the West has been prepping Ukraine for a war with Russia is laughable.  If that was the case, Ukraine would have HIMARS and Iron Dome and Leopard tanks in 2014 and Germany wouldn't have bothered constructing Nordstream 1 and 2.  The sad fact is that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 blindsided the West and even afterwards, a lot of western leaders fooled themselves into thinking that Putin would stop at Crimea.

And if the West had laid a trap for Putin in Ukraine, wouldn't Putin have been a colossal idiot to step right into it, harming Russia immensely?  Come to think of it, that sort of gross incompetence is borderline traitorous...

Edit - They are right about one thing: Westerners do indeed watch Russian troop movements online, geolocate them, and send artillery their way.  Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

There's an app for that: vigilant citizens spot incoming Caliber missile and use app to alert air defense, resulting in what I believe is the world's first successful joint civilian-military missile defense.

If you'd have told me that this would be a thing 20 years ago, I'd call you crazy.

And this is how I know Ukraine will win: its people are ingenuous and resourceful.  This gives it a huge advantage over Russia, which has a notably below-average ability to adapt. 

Ukrainian forces consistently out-think Russian forces, and as soon as military aid mostly closed the gap, were able to outgun them as well.  Ingenuity and technology and the skill to use it will always triumph over brute strength and cruelty.

Quote from: Hydra009 on October 27, 2022, 10:55:10 AMInfantryman's Uplifting Primer:

The otherwise bizarre actions and attitudes make more sense when realizing that they've essentially been cut off from the world and been fed lies by a dictator almost their entire lives.  The "saving the Ukrainian population from genocide" lie has aged particularly poorly, with numerous examples of exactly that from the Russian side.

Though you'd think at least a few of them would figure out that Ukraine being destitute doesn't jive with them generally living much better than Russians.

Also, the idea that the West has been prepping Ukraine for a war with Russia is laughable.  If that was the case, Ukraine would have HIMARS and Iron Dome and Leopard tanks in 2014 and Germany wouldn't have bothered constructing Nordstream 1 and 2.  The sad fact is that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014 blindsided the West and even afterwards, a lot of western leaders fooled themselves into thinking that Putin would stop at Crimea.

And if the West had laid a trap for Putin in Ukraine, wouldn't Putin have been a colossal idiot to step right into it, harming Russia immensely?  Come to think of it, that sort of gross incompetence is borderline traitorous...

Edit - They are right about one thing: Westerners do indeed watch Russian troop movements online, geolocate them, and send artillery their way.  Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

So Russia's goal is to...

[Checks notes]

Denazify the non-country known as Ukraine, which is under the control of Israel. Oh yes. If it's one thing Israel is known for, it's Nazis. Nazi Jews everywhere.

Quote from: Blackleaf on October 27, 2022, 06:30:52 PMSo Russia's goal is to...

[Checks notes]

Denazify the non-country known as Ukraine, which is under the control of Israel. Oh yes. If it's one thing Israel is known for, it's Nazis. Nazi Jews everywhere.

About that, Russia has recently gone death con 3.  Russia singled out the Chabad sect as particularly evil (coincidentally, the dominant jewish community in both Russia and Ukraine).  Jewish leaders (correctly, imo) interpreted this as a portent of looming discrimination/violence and the former chief Rabbi of Moscow asks jews to leave Russia for their own safety.  He himself fled Russia earlier this year.

On the other side of the coin, Zelensky is seeing positive trend in his talks with Israel, which has offered some assistance to Ukraine, but much less than Ukraine needs.

Russia sets up second battleline, mainly to shoot deserters

They're certainly incentivizing surrender.

Probably related: some Russian units operating at 6% strength

Weeks ago, that figure was around 25%.  Months ago, it was more like 50%.  Ukrainian attrition has been enormous, influcting more KIA to the Russians than the US suffered during the entire Vietnam war, condensed into less than a year.

And yet, if Russian forces take 15 steps towards Bakhmut while taking enormous casualties in the process, the media reports that "Russian forces continue to advance" and bite their nails about Kyiv's chances.  Very misleading and fear-based reporting, which has led to some inaccurate public perceptions.

Ukrainian artillery unit destroys 200 targets in 45 days

Quotehis unit has destroyed more than 200 targets in the last 1.5 months and these are the ones that have been confirmed.

Among the M777's targets are self-propelled artillery batteries, ammunition warehouses, russian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, and even two S-400 air-defense missile systems: "The last two were destroyed as accurately as possible: both shots hit the target."

That's about 4.5 targets per day.  And living to tell the tale afterwards.

I can't even begin to calculate the dollar value of the lost war materiel and vehicles on one side and the ammo on the other.  A single s-400 system costs around $300 million all by itself, so that Ukrainian unit easily knocked out over a billion dollars of Russian equipment in less than two months.

Russian Apathy
aligns with various reponses here:

Ukrainian forces destroy T-90M tank in Kherson region

Those are Putin's best tanks, so every loss is significant.

But this one is interesting in that it was one-shotted (man, the Ukrainians are getting really good at destroying tanks) and under normal circumstances, the ammo inside would have exploded, but it didn't have ammo inside.  This likely indicates severe ammo shortages (you don't under-ammo your best tank if you can help it)

Russia preparing to "create political unrest" in Moldova with the aim to "reorient Moldova towards Moscow"

After Ukraine regains its territory, it would a trivial matter to respond to an official Moldovan request for assistance.  Even just the positioning of Ukrainian artillery nearby might coax the Russians to leave.  A warning shot or two would further increase this likelihood.

Quote from: Hydra009 on October 29, 2022, 08:07:25 AMUkrainian forces destroy T-90M tank in Kherson region

Those are Putin's best tanks, so every loss is significant.

But this one is interesting in that it was one-shotted (man, the Ukrainians are getting really good at destroying tanks) and under normal circumstances, the ammo inside would have exploded, but it didn't have ammo inside.  This likely indicates severe ammo shortages (you don't under-ammo your best tank if you can help it)

Even though the Russian tanks have big-time flaws, if one deployed the latest NATO tanks in that thoughtless manner they would be destroyed as well.

Quote from: Cassia on October 29, 2022, 09:48:02 AMEven though the Russian tanks have big-time flaws, if one deployed the latest NATO tanks in that thoughtless manner they would be destroyed as well.

Yeah, infantry, close air support, surveillance, logistics support, etc.  The Russians hop in and go blasting like they're playing GTA or something.  Their thoughtlessness has made a lot of Ukrainian victories possible.

Speaking of Ukrainian victories...the Black Sea fleet was extremely recently under attack by a bunch of Ukrainian drones.

We don't know much at present and some Wormtongue on the Russian side is spewing lies I'm not interested in.  Half the article is filled with them.  Shameful what passes for journalism these days.

What we do know for sure is the Admiral Makarov is smoking.  Whether or not it'll succumb to "rough seas" is still to be determined.

Wikipedia has it as heavily damaged.  Can't wait to see "is" become "was" all over that page.