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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

Commander of Russian landing vessel confirmed dead

He was on the receiving end of the Nov 10th attack on Crimea that sunk two Russian boats.

Hydra009



Hydra009

Ukraine reveals how it targetted the Crimea bridge, thanks Russian yacht owner who filmed the underside

The windows sure are slippery in Moscow...

Also, the Kremlin launched a drone attack on Kyiv with 75 drones, 74 of which were shot down (in keeping with Russia's similarly suicidal ground war)

Still, they hit a kindergarten and damaged electrical infrastructure, though power was restored quickly. This is likely the start of another winter bombardment of Ukraine's electrical infrastructure.  Even though Ukraine has been bolstered by aid and a few more air defense, Ukraine has not fully recovered from the last bombardment.  But knowing the enemy's plans and bolstered air defense means the enemy likely will not be able to inflict as much damage this year as last year.

Unbeliever

This is becoming a perpetual war. 🙄
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

#3380
Quote from: Unbeliever on November 25, 2023, 04:34:01 PMThis is becoming a perpetual war. 🙄
Not a lot of territory changes hands every day, that's true.  But I don't think that means it won't.  There are only so many days that any country can run >1k casualties.

Previously, the Russians were at Kyiv's doorstep.  Now they have lost half of what they have taken and it's not just Ukrainian positions under bombardment anymore.  As an example, the Russians used to have Kherson city and everywhere south of it.  Then they lost Kherson city, then they lost territory near the river south of it.  There's a clear, albeit slow, progression.

Ukraine simply needs much more aid to liberate its territory on a more pleasant timetable.  I note - with some worry - that Russia appears to be receiving more artillery shells from North Korea than Ukraine received from the EU.  This has undoubtedly prolonged the war.  And unless the western allies show similar boldness, there is a good chance that Russia's allies may be successful in turning this into a frozen conflict.

Hydra009

Speaking of, Ukraine now in full control of the south bank (previously, it was merely several bridgeheads)

The obvious next step for Ukraine is to start constructing bridges and start moving in the heavy armor.

The Russians - for once keenly aware of the glaringly obvious - are attempting to fortify.  But they built their Surovikin defensive line through: 1) competent planning 2) a relative lull in hostilities 3) over the course of 9 months.  None of those factors are currently at play.  Besides, anyone here ever try to dig a hole when the ground is literally frozen?  Let's just say that an e-tool isn't going to cut it.  Granted, the Russians do have some excavating equipment, but it's definitely in high demand and I'm not sure they'd necessarily prioritize this area or be able to safely use it so close to the front line.  Something to keep an eye out for, though.

Hydra009

#3382
Ukraine to receive escort ships to protect grain vessels using its grain corridor along the western edge of the Black Sea

Don't expect heavy cruisers or anything, we're likely talking about fairly small craft.  Considering that great emphasis was put on how specific the request was, it's almost certainly produced by a single country which evidently agreed to their use.  That's a fairly short list, though it remains a mystery for now.

Still, it's amazing that Ukraine is going to have a warship presence in the Black Sea at all, considering that Russia has been the only one fielding warships in that sea for at least a year.

Hydra009

#3383
Mysterious explosions rock Russian facility that produces tank engines

This is the same facility that a Ukrainian soldier called to complain about the quality of the tank engines, which he said frequently sputtered, leaked oil, and had faulty compressors.  They assumed he was a Russian soldier, apologized profusely, and promised to correct the issue, after which the Ukrainian identified himself.

Quote"When we take more of these tanks as our trophies, make them better so that it will be easier for us to operate them. Agreed? Thank you very much. Take care of yourselves. Glory to Ukraine," he added.

Moscow region airports close, allegedly due to Ukrainian drones

Fly the unfriendly skies!

Hydra009

Just saw the latest round of combat footage and I have free advice for the invaders:

If a grenade drops near your position, whatever you do, don't try to pick it up and throw it.  You won't be fast enough.  Trust me.  Just run away or roll away.  That'll save your bacon.  Or at least make the Ukrainians use up more ammo and time.

And of course, just don't go to Ukraine.  The jail time is much better, trust me.  You really don't want your 15 minutes of fame to be on a drone drop video with people responding with laughing emojis.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on November 26, 2023, 04:43:34 PMJust saw the latest round of combat footage and I have free advice for the invaders:

If a grenade drops near your position, whatever you do, don't try to pick it up and throw it.  You won't be fast enough.  Trust me.  Just run away or roll away.  That'll save your bacon.  Or at least make the Ukrainians use up more ammo and time.

And of course, just don't go to Ukraine.  The jail time is much better, trust me.  You really don't want your 15 minutes of fame to be on a drone drop video with people responding with laughing emojis.

All of the old techniques like digging a deep foxhole, barbed-wire, mines and using camo netting are rendered useless by sharp-eyed or infrared drones. They may actually hurt you instead of help.  If a bomb ends up in your foxhole you are done for. Jamming devices are what you need.



Hydra009

Quote from: Cassia on November 26, 2023, 08:30:47 PMJamming devices are what you need.
Yep.  There's footage from only a few days ago of a Ukrainian soldier with a mobile drone jammer walking through a field and pointing out a bunch of Russian drones that had fallen into the field, presumably due to being jammed.

Hydra009

#3387

Another loooong video breaking down the latest action from a dispassionate, bean-counter approach (said with genuine appreciation)

I want to highlight the 41min50sec mark as particularly noteworthy - the losses around Avdiivka are overwhelmingly in Ukraine's favor.

Also, this battle gave fact-checkers a change to test to see if Ukraine was lying/exaggerating Russian losses.  Ukrainian estimates are of course higher than what's visually confirmed - that's to be expected because obviously, not every kill is photographed/geotagged - but Ukrainian claims do correlate very closely with visually confirmed losses.  So, when the Ukrainians say that they blew up more tanks today than yesterday we can confirm that more tanks were indeed blown up.  So the Ukrainian claims are overall pretty plausible.

Contrast that with Russian claims that vary from outlandish to physically impossible, and I think we can safely say that the Ukrainian loss count is much more accurate than the Russian one.

Hydra009

#3388
Devastating storm hits eastern Europe

It hit Crimea especially hard, half a million residents without power.

Hydra009

Russian students asked to donate vapes to harvest computer chips for drones

I honestly can't tell if this is genius or stupid.  It certainly highlights a significant chip shortage, though that isn't a new thing.