New Hampshire primary 2016

[josephpalazzo]

Last poll closes tonight at 8:00 PM ET

What the polls looked like before opening this morning.

New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary:   Trump 33, Rubio 14, Kasich 17, Cruz 10, Bush 9, Christie 8, Fiorina 3, Carson 1   
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary:   Sanders 53, Clinton 44   

[Hydra009]

NH called for Trump and Sanders.  4 different candidates who have had the top spot in these first two states  - quite a split so far.

[SGOS]

The only reason I'm not surprised is because primaries are so surprising.   I do wish Sanders well.  I thought he seemed a bit too genuine too be a good politician, but now that I think about it, maybe sincerity isn't the handicap I thought it was.  But a guy identifying himself as a socialist winning just one primary election in the USA?  Well, fuck me all the way to Kansas City.  It boggles the imagination!

[josephpalazzo]

Final results:

Delegates won:

Trump 10, Kasich 3, Cruz 2, Bush 2

Sanders 13, Clinton 9

There are no surprises except for Kasich finishing second.

[TomFoolery]

But a guy identifying himself as a socialist winning just one primary election in the USA?  Well, fuck me all the way to Kansas City.  It boggles the imagination!

I feel the same way. I was hopeful but never really convinced. Now I'm thinking it might actually be possible. I've donated money to his campaign, and I've never donated to any political agenda.

It also boggles the imagination that Donald Trump could get such overwhelming support despite spewing hate speech and ignorance at every turn and saying anyone who gets angry about it is just being too "politically correct." It's hard not to feel like bipartisan politics has really just divided the country into two separate populations, as you can see in the following recreation below:

[josephpalazzo]

The only reason I'm not surprised is because primaries are so surprising.   I do wish Sanders well.  I thought he seemed a bit too genuine too be a good politician, but now that I think about it, maybe sincerity isn't the handicap I thought it was.  But a guy identifying himself as a socialist winning just one primary election in the USA?  Well, fuck me all the way to Kansas City.  It boggles the imagination!

My instincts are telling me that a Jewish socialist won't make it to the White House.

[SGOS]

I feel the same way. I was hopeful but never really convinced. Now I'm thinking it might actually be possible. I've donated money to his campaign, and I've never donated to any political agenda.

It also boggles the imagination that Donald Trump could get such overwhelming support despite spewing hate speech and ignorance at every turn and saying anyone who gets angry about it is just being too "politically correct." It's hard not to feel like bipartisan politics has really just divided the country into two separate populations, as you can see in the following recreation below:

It's puzzling, but interesting to speculate about what's going on.  Usually, many of us (myself and others excluded) tend to glorify the middle ground, like Hillary and whoever that other guy is next to her in the cartoon.  It's as if the middle ground represents a compromise of some collective wisdom that is therefore "better." 

From the middle we then identify the extremes, which we have trained ourselves to perceive as wingnuts and wackos.  And sometimes I view them that way too.  But I think this perception may be unfair.  I think it's true that the wingnuts tend to gravitate to the so called extremes, but I don't think they actually define it.  And what is so great about the center?  That can be corrupted, and likely has been since it's the source of power, and becomes the target for those who have the means to control that power.

From what's happening currently, it might be that a lot of people are not as enamored with the center as I had once thought.  And I think the center might be losing its edge too.  But there is still a long ways to go until the conventions.

[Hydra009]

From what's happening currently, it might be that a lot of people are not as enamored with the center as I had once thought.  And I think the center might be losing its edge too.  But there is still a long ways to go until the conventions.

That and it's pretty typical for primaries to host fairly extreme policy positions for the candidates to secure their political base.  Then, during the general election, both candidates rush to the center to secure moderate voters.

[SGOS]

My instincts are telling me that a Jewish socialist won't make it to the White House.

I'm not going to place a bet against that.  And the Republicans will have a field day with the socialist thing.  I keep getting that image of Sara Palin doing her, "That's Socialism," speech, while she invites the crowd to join in and chant the key line at the end of each of her condemnations of Obama, who is hardly a socialist worthy of note, even though the Republicans tried to paint him as the most liberal Democrat in the senate, an accusation that didn't stick, and one which Obama never even pretended. 

[SGOS]

That and it's pretty typical for primaries to host fairly extreme policy positions for the candidates to secure their political base.  Then, during the general election, both candidates rush to the center to secure moderate voters.

I think that's the typical pattern, but I don't remember candidates like Sanders or Trump taking the extreme thing to this level.  Sanders, maybe, but Trump seems like a one off.  I'll have to watch closer in the future.

[josephpalazzo]

I'm not going to place a bet against that.  And the Republicans will have a field day with the socialist thing.  I keep getting that image of Sara Palin doing her, "That's Socialism," speech, while she invites the crowd to join in and chant the key line at the end of each of her condemnations of Obama, who is hardly a socialist worthy of note, even though the Republicans tried to paint him as the most liberal Democrat in the senate, an accusation that didn't stick, and one which Obama never even pretended. 

I'm not sure what happened with Obama and what's happening this time around is comparable. Sanders is getting most of his support from millennials, and young people have the worst record for going out to vote. Will this be different than in the past? That's to be determined in November. Also a socialist will galvanize the Right, and they will show up to vote regardless whose on the GOP ticket. And last, if Sanders wins the nomination, it will be hard for him to shift to the center as his great quality is authenticity, which he would then lose with that shift.

[Solomon Zorn]

...And what is so great about the center?...

The center, or some approximation of it, is the only place where the two sides can meet, if we are to have any progress.

[SGOS]

I'm not sure what happened with Obama and what's happening this time around is comparable. Sanders is getting most of his support from millennials, and young people have the worst record for going out to vote. Will this be different than in the past? That's to be determined in November. Also a socialist will galvanize the Right, and they will show up to vote regardless whose on the GOP ticket. And last, if Sanders wins the nomination, it will be hard for him to shift to the center as his great quality is authenticity, which he would then lose with that shift.

Obama and Sanders have some similarities and of course some differences.  Their political approaches are not the same, and they are working in entirely different political environments.  Obama would replace an almost criminal administration that was at the bottom of its popularity, even among members of it's own party.  An administration that was so intensely disliked that securing the nomination was more important than switching to "middle of the road" for the general election, an advantage that is not available to Sanders this year.  All Obama, or any other Democrat had to do was win the nomination which almost assured the presidency.

Sanders is equally inspiring as Obama was 8 years ago, but having watched my hope and inspiration evaporate during Obama's administration, I'm wondering how this highly emotional component in voter psychology will play this  time around after such an uninspiring 8 years.  People still hope of course, because that's all they've got in the end, but cynicism may take the edge off this emotional component for Sanders.

Hillary is inherently establishment, middle of the road, and status quo.  A great debater who stands up well under the cloud of scandal that follows her everywhere, but beyond defending herself, I get no feeling that she desires defending anyone else.  She exudes self confidence out of every pore, but hasn't articulated much in the way of a plan that inspires hope for others.  I don't know if she actually has a plan, or if she just wants to be the president.

In either case, Sanders or Hillary will have to run against Donald Trump (at least that's what I'm guessing.)  While Trump doesn't impress me as presidential material, he is wildly popular.  This election year might turn out to be the most interesting, and at the same time, the most uninspiring political event I've ever seen in my life.

[SGOS]

The center, or some approximation of it, is the only place where the two sides can meet, if we are to have any progress.

I'm not sure whether all parties gravitating to the center produces progress or just supports the status quo.  Or to put it another way, the center might produce an environment where things can happen, but if the things that happen are just more of the same that got us where we are, is this progress?

I liken it to a pile of dog shit on the sidewalk.  Some idiot comes along, steps in it, and squishes it, leaving a waffle stomper boot print.  It's still dog shit.

[josephpalazzo]

Obama and Sanders have some similarities and of course some differences.  Their political approaches are not the same, and they are working in entirely different political environments.  Obama would replace an almost criminal administration that was at the bottom of its popularity, even among members of it's own party.  An administration that was so intensely disliked that securing the nomination was more important than switching to "middle of the road" for the general election, an advantage that is not available to Sanders this year.  All Obama, or any other Democrat had to do was win the nomination which almost assured the presidency.

Sanders is equally inspiring as Obama was 8 years ago, but having watched my hope and inspiration evaporate during Obama's administration, I'm wondering how this highly emotional component in voter psychology will play this  time around after such an uninspiring 8 years.  People still hope of course, because that's all they've got in the end, but cynicism may take the edge off this emotional component for Sanders.

Hillary is inherently establishment, middle of the road, and status quo.  A great debater who stands up well under the cloud of scandal that follows her everywhere, but beyond defending herself, I get no feeling that she desires defending anyone else.  She exudes self confidence out of every pore, but hasn't articulated much in the way of a plan that inspires hope for others.  I don't know if she actually has a plan, or if she just wants to be the president.

In either case, Sanders or Hillary will have to run against Donald Trump (at least that's what I'm guessing.)  While Trump doesn't impress me as presidential material, he is wildly popular.  This election year might turn out to be the most interesting, and at the same time, the most uninspiring political event I've ever seen in my life.

There's a cloud of fake scandals around Hillary, which is perpetuated by the GOP and Fox News. Come on, who else is still taking about Benghazi and the emails but Fox News and their ilk? The GOP fears a Clinton nomination as they have made the sober calculations that she can really win. Sanders is benefiting from those fake scandal, but considering that the presidential election boils down to a few swing states,  the GOP has a much greater chance of winning against Sanders. Just remember that had Gore won his home state of Tennessee, he would have won in 2000. Sometimes that's all it takes, one state to win it all. Sanders will do poorly in the swing states, he's too far to the left, and as I said previously, moving to the center on his part will make him lose his authenticity. Chances are he will stick to his proposals as such, and most Americans won't buy into it, just because it has the label "socialism" attached to it - though Medicare is already a socialist program, but don't tell them that.