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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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ferdmonger

Vlad is helping the ruble by keeping his hair short and saving on hair dye product expenses -  unlike Rudy Giuliani.   

Hydra009

#3076
Ugh, I hate trying to find the latest news through American media.  "Russia says they shot down 10 drones" and "Russia says the attack was unsuccessful".

Look guys, Russia says a lot of things, and most of them aren't true.  Simply repeating stuff that almost certainly isn't true ain't journalism. 

Sometimes, it's not even prefaced with "Russia says" it's "10 drones shot down" as if it were fact.  Express skepticism.  Put up independent confirmation when it's available.  At the very least, pair Russian claims with Ukrainian claims and note which one is closer to the truth.  So sick of "impartiality" between fact and fiction.  That's what got us Trump.

Hydra009

#3077
Ukraine launches another attack in Crimea, destroys a s-400 antiair system

In the first wave, Ukrainian drones damaged Russian radars and antennas to blind them to the second wave, consisting of two Neptune missiles, destroying the launchers.

I know that this is all "Ukraine says" but Ukraine said they damaged two Russian naval vessels yesterday and we got video of the attack and a pic of the aftermath.  We know for a fact that both vessels were severely damaged, just like they said.  Meanwhile, Russia initially denied everything then admitted they were damaged but lied and said that they were still functional.  Ukraine told the truth and the evidence bears it out.  Russia lied about whether or not the Ukrainian attack was successful, then lied about the extent of the damage.  I expect this s-400 destruction to be similarly verified, confirming Ukrainian claims.

Hydra009

Ukraine damages two Russian patrol boats in southwestern part of Black Sea

No biggie, Russia can just tow them to the repair ba...oh nevermind.  I hope they have a secondary site lined up.

Man, Ukraine's been on a ship-killing frenzy lately.  It's like they made an alliance with Davy Jones or something.

Hydra009

#3079
The invaders say that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, yet there's a flurry of new activity desperately trying to build new trenches and other fortifications near the third line of defense and "deep rear" of Russian defensive lines.  Curious.

The telegram channel went into specifics based on satellite images:

Quote🔺New trenches are being dug and defensive structures are being strengthened near the front line in Pologiv district
🔺They are occupying houses and setting up new equipment in villages near Tokmak, and in the city itself roadblocks have been set up and anti-tank hedgehogs have been placed
🔺New recreation centres on the Azov coast are being taken over, and in Berdyansk, a helicopter base has been set up at the airfield
🔺Ex- prisoners are brought in to repel Robotin and hold the front
Tokmak in particular seems to be a Custer's Last Stand sort of place for the Russians, based on how they've built their fortifications.  If they wish to stay there forever, I'm sure the Ukrainians can oblige.


Unbeliever

Couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy.
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Dollars to donuts it's alcohol-related, likely exacerbated by obesity

Dark Lightning

My sushi didn't taste any differently! 🤔

ferdmonger

Vlad, you're a suck fest
Please learn how to read a map
I'm glad I'm not you

Hydra009

#3085
There has been a lot of interesting news lately, so I'll recap in brief:

Ukraine liberates Andriivka

This is important because it further solidifies Ukrainian holdings south of Bakhmut.  They've also had partial success in Klishchiivka, which is slightly closer to Bakhmut and is expected to be similarly liberated not long from now.  Piece by piece, Ukraine is slipping from Russian grasp.

Additionally, Ukrainian forces report devastating losses on Russians in the area - the invaders "lost the head of their brigade intelligence and almost all of the infantry of the 72nd Brigade, along with officers and a significant amount of equipment."  Basically wiped out.  Those losses can't be easily replaced and further weaken Russia's hold on the eastern front.

Russia says that they have not signed any agreement with North Korea

Given Moscow's relationship with the truth, it's safe to say that the opposite is true.  In fact, the North Korean delegation likely overstayed their time precisely because talks were abundantly fruitful.

The EU has dropped the grain import ban on Ukraine - in reaction, Poland, Hungary, and Slovakia have announced their own grain bans.  In contrast, Bulgaria - which borders Ukraine - has voted to lift its grain ban.

Russia "accidentally" bombs occupied city not far from the frontline.  I would quip that they must've gotten lost on their way to Belgorod, but deaths of civilians are no laughing matter.  And Russian incompetence and malice are becoming increasingly difficult to distinguish - though it hardly matters to the bereaved.  I sincerely hope that Ukrainian civilians get a chance to educate the Russian troops responsible on how to properly strike a target as they sleep.

A massive and mysterious fire has broken out in St Petersburg.  Maybe an accident, maybe not...

Hydra009

On September 14th, a Ukrainian sea drone reportedly hit the Russian ship Samum, inflicting damage and causing it to list to its starboard side, requiring it to be towed to port for repairs

Moscow confirmed that a marine drone attacked the Samum missile ship, claiming (dubiously, imho) that the attack was repelled and the drone destroyed.  When they say stuff like this, I wonder if they are technically telling the truth - such drones are indeed destroyed when they crash into an enemy ship and explode.

Shiranu

Just throwing out there, appreciate how on-top of this news you've been Hydra.
"A little science distances you from God, but a lot of science brings you nearer to Him." - Louis Pasteur

Hydra009

Quote from: Shiranu on September 16, 2023, 01:35:28 AMJust throwing out there, appreciate how on-top of this news you've been Hydra.
Thank you, but I feel like I'm just barely covering half of it and mostly just summarizing.

A lot of big stories fall through the cracks.  A Ukrainian oligarch (part of a pro-Russian political party) was arrested and is scheduled to be tried for treason.  That's big.  I might cover that later.

I haven't even touched on the corruption scandals because so much of it is open to speculation and subjective opinion and I just I don't know enough to do it justice.

I just try to cover the big events to get a quick view of how things are going.

I try to avoid routine events (Sumy region shelled, civilians wounded) unless they're abnormally heinous.  I also try to avoid covering non-concrete stuff like speeches unless they're big developments.  A diplomat saying Slava Ukraine isn't news unless they're Israeli or Armenian or something.

Cassia

I am just guessing, but will Putin have to admit strategy failure and declare general mobilization at some point if he wants to have any chance of winning this war? That might finally get the attention of his people, LOL. I know they have their fake elections soon. Maybe he will do it after that.

He has to do it sooner than later because if they keep draining weapons and ammo this option of raising a massive army will do little good in the distant future. I do wonder if they have been withholding some of the better equipment for a massive Soviet-style offensive next Summer.