Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

[Hydra009]

Independently, the UK estimates that around 450k Russian troops have been killed or wounded (not including PMCs)

[Hydra009]

US buys 81 Soviet fighter jets from Kazakastan for less than $20k usd each

Hmmm...who might be trained on soviet planes and in desperate need of them?

Granted, the planes are so damn old that they're not super useful, but Ukraine recently used a Yak to down a Russian drone and Ukraine is fond of converting old planes into kamikaze drones, so I'm sure they could find a use for them.

[Hydra009]

There has been a lot of footage lately of military hardware in transit to Ukraine: Bradleys, humvees, and Paladin self-propelled howitzers.  I hope Putin's vanguard enjoys them thoroughly.

[Dark Lightning]

It's looking grim for Ukraine, as I see it on the internet. The rethuglicans in this country suck Russian balls, and it's a problem. When there are people like Marjory Taylor Greene spewing Russian talking points (and them claiming her as an asset, yet!), it's pretty bad.

[Hydra009]

It's looking grim for Ukraine, as I see it on the internet.

Well, there's good news and bad news.  While the southern frontline is holding steady, the eastern front is very much in flux.  Apparently, the Russians did a major push while the Ukrainians were rotating their troops, hitting them at an especially bad time.  And along this front, the Russians have a substantial numerical and supply advantage.  The Ukrainians have no choice but to fall back and cede territory to buy time.  So yes, Russian forces have made gains, for example taking Ocheretyne village.  And while losing a km or two in some parts of the frontline and several villages is not good, it's not exactly the end of the world or a collapse of the frontline.  Arguably, the current strategic situation is better than earlier years - some villages being under threat is a lot better than when Kharkiv and Mykolaiv were under serious threat and Kherson and Lyman were still occupied.  Additionally, many Ukrainian thermal plants and Kharkiv have taken substantial damage from Russian bombardment.  Again, while not good, this is afaik not nearly as bad a the Russian bombardment in the winter in late 2022 and early 2023.

And while this is going on, fresh aid packages are making their way to Ukraine.  US aid, UK aid, Czech ammo initiative (plus other ammo initiatives), aid packages from various countries from Spain to Greece to Finland.  And after that, F-16s.  Putin's strategy of faltering Western support handing him victory is no longer a reality.

While Ukraine is battered, Russia is ridiculously far from its stated goals of conquering Kyiv and crushing Ukraine's military.  In fact, those goals seem laughable now, and they were no laughing matter in 2022.

Russia's main strengths - its navy, its special forces, its aviation, its artillery, its massive armor stockpiles - they're all wearing away.  Once spent, those are gone for a long, long time.  Possibly forever.  And boy are they getting spent.  Yes, they're making headlines.  Yes, they're taking ground.  But that's not sustainable in any way whatsoever.  Eventually, they'll hit a breaking point, as Estonia predicted.

Ukraine's main strengths - its western hardware, its artillery, and its drone swarms are only improving in capability.  Ukraine's arsenal now versus its arsenal in 2022 is like night and day.  Hell, they just added ATACMS to their arsenal and we have yet to see them go all out with those.  And their drone game has stepped up a lot too - no offense to the Bayraktars.  Before, it was mostly drone drops.  Now, they're doing FPV drone attacks with increasingly agile and accurate and explosive capabilities.  Don't just take my word for it, look at the daily equipment losses.  It's the main cause of somewhere around 2/3 of Russian vehicle losses right now.  There's a huge disparity between Ukraine and Russia in terms of drone effectiveness, particularly when it comes to FPV drones.  Ukraine is also striking deep in Russian territory with drones, hitting airfields and oil refineries.  If you had told me this would be going on in April 2022, I would assume you're on drugs or something.  It seems like a pipedream.  The point is that Ukraine is increasingly able to match Russia tit-for-tat - it's no longer just one country getting bombarded, one country getting invaded, one country having a presence at sea, etc.  If the Allies had never dropped the ball (mostly the US is to blame here) which stymied critical supplies, we wouldn't be talking about Ukraine being in trouble at all.

Bottom line - Russia is on a downward curve.  Ukraine is on an upward curve.  Inevitably...X marks the spot.  It might take 2-3 years to get there, but it's not a question of if, it's a question of when.

[Hydra009]

I'm just glad that social media didn't exist during the two big wars - "Pearl Harbor attack neuters US", "Phillipines lost forever", "Java Sea disaster - US locked into forever war.  Now's the right time for negotiations, says top US businessman after visiting Japanese officials"

[the_antithesis]

It's looking grim for Ukraine, as I see it on the internet. The rethuglicans in this country suck Russian balls, and it's a problem. When there are people like Marjory Taylor Greene spewing Russian talking points (and them claiming her as an asset, yet!), it's pretty bad.

Shouldn't MTG be executed for treason or something?

[Unbeliever]

She should at least be removed from the House of Representatives! She should definitely NOT be anywhere close to Washington D.C.!

[the_antithesis]

Hope she doesn't have Jell-O in the house.

[Hydra009]

1300+ infantry losses.  Huge losses are fueling these territorial gains.

[Hydra009]

A Russian soldier made an online video pleading for viewers to buy them pump-action shotguns to help against Ukrainian FPV drones.  He said his forces have enough "spirit" to continue to fight, but his unit is sick of the FPV drones.  He said "they are simply burning us" and the "when the tiny $500 scum burns you from above and tears you apart, it makes things difficult" (understatement of the year)

Sounds like Putin's forces are giving Ukrainian drones and drone operators their own sort of endorsement.  Perhaps Ukraine could use a few more crowdfunded drones, to make things extra difficult. 😈

Also, it must sting a little to be considered to be worth less than $500 by Putin.  They've been marching in the wrong direction this entire time, but it's not too late to change one's path.

[Hydra009]

Ukraine hits Russian oil depot in Smolensk region in Russia, burns down 14 out of 16 oil tanks

[Hydra009]

US announces new sanctions package against Russia

I recommend checking out the official write-up as it goes into detail about who is sanctioned and why while still staying brief.

But here's my fast summary:  they're going after hundreds of individuals and companies in various countries linked to Russian weapons programs, over a dozen Chinese companies helping Russia, and 3 individuals linked to Navalny's death.

And last but not least, Congress has voted for a ban on importing Russian low-enriched uranium (about 12% of uranium fueling American nuclear power plants is produced in Russia and the US pays Putin almost a billion dollars per year for this uranium, funds that Putin surely uses to help fund his war on Ukraine).  Companies could possibly apply for waivers to continue importing Russian uranium if the US gov deems it necessary, but all waivers expire by 1/1/2028.  It still has to be signed by President Biden, but he's expected to sign it.

US companies seek to expand domestic production of uranium to completely or partially offset this loss.

🎵 Uranium fever has done and got me down
Uranium fever is spreadin' all around
With a Geiger counter in my hand
I'm a-goin' out to stake me some government land 🎵

[Hydra009]

Ukraine hits Russian troops with ATACMS (cluster munition variant)

Once again, I initially thought this was old news but it turns out this is a brand new story, it's just very similar to something that happened a couple months ago.  So similar that it feels like a repeat.  (That one was a himars strike in Kherson region, but this one is an ATACMS strike in luhansk region, so they're not the same thing)

The first ATACMS missile appears to have been a dud, but the remaining ones are pretty much an enlarged version of Power Word: Swiss Cheese.  Not the kind of thing you can just walk off.

[Hydra009]