100+ Wagner troops have been deployed to the Suwalki Gap (the border between Belarus, Poland, and Lithuania - not far from the Russian exclave of Kallingrad)

They're definitely up to something, and it appears that Ukraine is not the target...

I have a bridge in Crimea to sell ya:  Russian-installed collaborator claimed that Ukraine attacked the bridge linking Crimea to Kherson region with Storm Shadow cruise missiles

Naturally, he claims that Russian air defence shot down all 12 (!) missiles.  Evidently, he's adapting well to Russian culture.  Meanwhile, Russian milbloggers don't report any AA activity and the Russian ministry of defense reports that they shot down 7 Storm Shadow missiles.  🤡

From a couple of weeks ago, but still good:


Btw, Russian electronic warfare systems can jam HIMARS GPS guidance somewhat successfully now.  Unfortunately for them, Ukraine bagged a bunch of electronic warfare systems with artillery/aviation/drones.  Rock-paper-scissors is a lot easier when you can reliably hit the paper with ordnance.

It looks like these guys have no idea what they are doing. Unload right into heavy fire?

Yeah, pretty gruesome.  I would've assumed they didn't know about the Ukrainians behind cover but the armored transport was shooting at them before everyone disembarked.

On the full video, the transport caught on fire and was completely destroyed.  So that engagement was likely a total loss for Russia.

Russian special military operation bears fruit

Russian media claims a major win for Russia in bagging their first IRIS-T.

Just one small problem... it's totally a fake.

For starters, no secondary explosions or fire. 

Also, the explosion just shreds it as if it was made of something comparatively light, like wood, and the whole thing sways from the blast.

This was bait, and the Russians not only bit it, but bragged about it later LOL

Nice island base ya got there, it'd be a shame if something happened to it...

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20120

According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russian narratives have shifted

For some time, the Kremlin has allowed Russian milbloggers and Russian state media to report with some level of reality - acknowledging losses and successful Ukrainian actions as well as giving not-entirely-wrong assessments and predictions.  This slow-drip of reality may have been intended to acclimate the Russian public to the reality of the situation and also to undercut wartime criticism of the Kremlin from military leaders like Prigozhin.

This has changed, likely due to the almost-coup from Wagner (Prigozhin brazenly contradicted Putin's war justifications and war goals in public just prior to launching his march towards Moscow)

Now, the Russian information space more closely resembles North Korea.  Bad news is forbidden and Russia is invincible.  For example, Russia circulated claims that it retook a settlement it didn't retake.  It also claims it shot down all the Storm Shadow missiles headed towards Chonhar bridge and even shared a photo of it while conveniently cropping out the damaged section.  The truth came out and a less flattering photo clearly shows that it was in fact damaged.  The Russian milblogger community was suspiciously quiet on this news, likely due to the Kremlin publicly asking them to "refrain from covering certain topics".

So expect lots of claims that the Ukraine counteroffensive is making no headway, the Russians are winning every battle, etc.  Expects lots of big whoppers with scant - if any - supporting information.

The Kremlin is now completely divorced from reality and their messaging will bear that out, from Lavrov to Russian milbloggers to certain sympathetic individuals in the US and other western countries.

"The Kremlin is now completely divorced from reality and their messaging will bear that out, from Lavrov to Russian milbloggers to certain sympathetic individuals in the US and other western countries."

Well, to be fair, they've always been divorced from reality.

Quote from: ferdmonger on August 02, 2023, 07:53:02 PMWell, to be fair, they've always been divorced from reality.

Well, we've seen stuff like them saying they shot down 500 bazillion Bayraktars and 90 Abrams tanks.  But they've also acknowledged that the Kerch bridge was damaged and for the most part, both sides have been reporting clashes and explosions at the same places.  So there's still a lot of overlap, even though Russia puts their own spin on things.

Now, expect a much more off-the-rails narrative where they crushed the whole Ukrainian offensive, took back Staromaiorske, leveled Odessa, and are poised to take back Kherson and Kharkiv any second now.

1996-2023... only thing that has changed is apparently Russians actually cared about their dead and wounded 30 years ago.