Next, the Prig will want to defect and then turn on the Ukrainians.

Not to worry.  The 'special operation' is all going according to plan, right Vlad?

Quote from: ferdmonger on June 23, 2023, 07:20:41 PMNot to worry.  The 'special operation' is all going according to plan, right Vlad?

Oh yeah, things are going just fine

I swear, the internet is going to explode if Zelenskyy publicly asks Putin if he needs a ride.

Starting to wonder about those feints into other areas by forces aligned with anyone but the state a couple of weeks ago. Was that to test reaction by the citizenry?  Wish I had a crystal ball.

This is why you don't arm criminals with tanks and guns. They may feel they have a better chance at staying alive against Russians than against the Ukrainian army.

Quote from: Cassia on June 23, 2023, 10:40:11 PMThey may feel they have a better chance at staying alive against Russians than against the Ukrainian army.

Considering Ukraine's new armaments, that's likely literally true.

Also, it just goes to show that you should never divide your command structure.  Farming out army jobs to PMCs helped Putin disguise casualties and helped ensure that the military is disunited (understatement of the year) and never truly a threat to his power (in theory).

It also made Russia dependent on a PMC who was the only one consistently getting results.  That opened the door to jealousy and internal conflict pretty quickly, especially when they started complaining about munitions shortages, essentially shifting the blame of their own losses to the Russian military.  The two were on a collision course almost right away, just by the structure of the situation.  There's something about this whole situation that reminds me of the Foundation books...

Wagner forces shoot down three Russian helicopters

*cooks popcorn over the flaming wreckage*

I was talking to my brother about this last night.  Wagner attacking Russia is the best possible scenario for Ukraine.  It means that Ukraine no longer has to fight Wagner forces plus whatever forces Russia has to commit to stop them.  That's a huge loss of manpower for Russia.

It also raises the prospect of some invaders abandoning their defensive lines in Ukraine in order to deal with Wagner in Russia.

Russia has competent defenses along the southern front, but if those defensive lines were to be abandoned... Ukraine would have an incredibly easy time advancing.  Even if only a fraction of the troops leave, it completely changes the situation.

This could potentially lead to the frontlines collapsing more quickly and easily than expected, saving thousands of lives and shortening the war by months.

Fingers crossed! 🤞

Quote from: Hydra009 on June 24, 2023, 06:59:10 AMI was talking to my brother about this last night.  Wagner attacking Russia is the best possible scenario for Ukraine.  It means that Ukraine no longer has to fight Wagner forces plus whatever forces Russia has to commit to stop them.  That's a huge loss of manpower for Russia.

It also raises the prospect of some invaders abandoning their defensive lines in Ukraine in order to deal with Wagner in Russia.

Russia has competent defenses along the southern front, but if those defensive lines were to be abandoned... Ukraine would have an incredibly easy time advancing.  Even if only a fraction of the troop
This could potentially lead to the frontlines collapsing more quickly and easily than expected, savings leave, it completely changes the situation.
 thousands of lives and shortening the war by months.

Fingers crossed! 🤞

It's a shame; this is an opportunity for Putin to sacrifice Defense Minister Shoigu to get out of this losing war without shouldering total blame.

Oh man, this is such a fast-breaking story that it's difficult to keep up!

A lot of it has been posted on telegram (lightning fast news, but not verified) as opposed to news sites, which typically lag for several hours, but I can generally trust.

So here's what we know for sure:



* Wagner has captured Rostov-on-Don, the Southern military HQ

* Wagner has fought some Russian military units on its the way to Rostov and Moscow.  Afaik, Wagner has won every encounter and captured Russian military vehicles, equipment, and personnel.  Apparently, a lot of the time, they're simply allowed to pass through with no resistance.

* Russian forces have fired on the Wagner convoy from the air, inflicting damage but failing to meaningfully slow the advance.  Wagner forces have shot down at least 3 Russian helicopters.

* Wagner forces have marched on Voronezh and seized military sites there.

* Wagner forces continue to advance, now in Lipetsk oblast/region, only a few hours drive from Moscow.

* Wagner leader demands that Putin hands over Shoigu for public execution (I think I'm going to have to call off my earlier wish for a rap battle, unfortunately)

* It's Treason, Then:  Putin has delivered a speech where he publicly brands Wagner leader Prigozhin a traitor and vows to punish Wagner.  How exactly he plans on doing this is anyone's guess.

Putin has reportedly been calling other countries' leaders to brief them on the situation and garner support (with a notably weird interaction with Kazakhstan), though I don't understand what Putin expects to get out of such interactions.  No one's coming to the rescue.

This is purely speculation and I could be totally wrong, but I suspect that Putin is shopping around for a place to hide.  Wouldn't be the first time a nazi had to flee the country.  But who would possibly host him?

One Russian bombing run reportedly hit a civilian vehicle while "attempting" to strike Wagner convoy

The driver and passenger are reported as killed.

Another Russian bombing run reportedly hit the roadside, not the road.

QuoteTherefore, the effectiveness of such an attack is unknown, and no destroyed or damaged equipment is visible on the road.

Translation: complete fail, utterly moronic.