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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Dark Lightning


Cassia

They are just gonna eat them.

Hydra009

#2357
Quote from: Unbeliever on April 02, 2023, 05:28:30 PMHe's existentially challenged...
Possibly, he unknowingly did himself in.

He invited a bunch of people to his meeting.  Someone brought a heavy (suspiciously heavy) statuette in a box.  The security guy was concerned and wanted them to leave it by the door, but he personally waved it in.  That's the story anyway, who knows what really happened.

Reading the Reuters article, I find Russia's reaction sickening.  The Kremlin called it vile terrorism and blamed Ukraine for it - without the slightest bit of proof - using it as justification for further aggression.  Specifically, to topple Ukraine's democratically-elected government.

They also say that the West's lack of condemnation of this attack while condemning Russia's ongoing war of aggression reveals double standards.  Personally, I don't cry myself to sleep at night when mass murderers and their accomplices die, nor do I consider the two things to be remotely comparable.  One is pretty clearly more evil than the other.  My only regret is that it took too long.

As for double standards, the Kremlin is the world expert - actively attacking civilians and torturing whoever they can get their hands on, intentionally getting its own citizens killed in a pointless war and being bizarrely happy about that, yet crying crocodile tears when some Z-troglodyte who fucked around found out.  If the Kremlin wants the world to care about Russian lives, perhaps they should start caring themselves.

Cassia

I guess the guy was critical of the Russian strategy at times, so it could have been Russia. Or adding to that motive maybe a false flag assignation to make Ukraine look bad as well.

Hydra009

#2359
Quote from: Cassia on April 03, 2023, 12:20:47 AMI guess the guy was critical of the Russian strategy at times, so it could have been Russia.
Unfortunately, this is a normal, common thing in Russia - Russian propagandists seems to be "critical" of the regime - but only to a very mild extent.  This gives people who may not completely buy Kremlin talking points someone who "tells it like it is" and vents their frustrations without actually being against Putin.  Make no mistake, every single one of these people are staunch nationalists, anti-US/EU, and are ultimately in line with Putin's orthodoxy.  Cause the people who aren't in line with Putin's orthodoxy get imprisoned or killed.

Not quite Darth Sidious levels of controlled opposition, but it's certainty an insidious way to funnel a range of viewpoints towards what is ultimately a singular agenda.  It allows Kremlin propaganda to hold onto more people, both those who uncritically accept whatever the Kremlin says and those who gravitate towards "renegades" (actually pseudo-renegades) "critical" of certain strategies but nonetheless actually on board with whatever Putin wants to do.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on April 03, 2023, 12:46:21 AMUnfortunately, this is a normal, common thing in Russia - Russian propagandists seems to be "critical" of the regime - but only to a very mild extent.  This gives people who may not completely buy Kremlin talking points someone who "tells it like it is" and vents their frustrations without actually being against Putin.  Make no mistake, every single one of these people are staunch nationalists, anti-US/EU, and are ultimately in line with Putin's orthodoxy.  Cause the people who aren't in line with Putin's orthodoxy get imprisoned or killed.

Not quite Darth Sidious levels of controlled opposition, but it's certainty an insidious way to funnel a range of viewpoints towards what is ultimately a singular agenda.  It allows Kremlin propaganda to hold onto more people, both those who uncritically accept whatever the Kremlin says and those who gravitate towards "renegades" (actually pseudo-renegades) "critical" of certain strategies but nonetheless actually on board with whatever Putin wants to do.
The line is blurry, however. Since the guy didn't fall out of a window or accidentally poison himself, you are probably right. But then again, that would be pretty obvious. I would suggest that anti-Russian assassins can take advantage of that, LOL.  In any event, Russian war bloggers should be cautious. It seems nowhere is safe for them.


Hydra009

Kremlin officer responsible for providing encrypted communications to Dictator Putin flees Russia, provides valuable intelligence to the West

QuoteOver the course of an hour-long interview, he shared details about Putin's habits, family and health.

Karakulov said Putin still does not use smartphones or the internet and demands that Russian state-run television be available on his foreign trips.

Hydra009

#2363


"Sounds like a good reason to join NATO"
"No, don't do it or there will be consequences!"
"Like what?"
*silence*

Hydra009

#2364
Ukraine trains 40k soldiers for counter-offensive

These troops are fresh, not unlike the Russian conscripts we've seen lately, but the similarities end there.  They've been properly trained and presumably properly equipped, with intact supply lines, good morale, and decent leadership.  I expect them to fare well alongside Ukrainian vets who have completed top-tier training in NATO countries.

When the counter-offensive happens, I expect already worn-down Russian units to lose ground like they did in Kharkiv.  The Russians have been doing a lot of digging, and so they're likely to either dig-in or flee as other options are eliminated.  We've seen the results of each choice already, and so I expect more of the same.

What I am not sure of is exactly how much panic will spread through Russian ranks and how they will react.  They could hold their ground for a while or they could break very quickly.  Difficult to predict.

Unbeliever

If I were a bettin' man my money would be on "break very quickly." 🥸
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

I'd love to imagine that as well, but if they broke like that all the time, this war would be long over.  They've been taking territory and holding onto it for the most part - Kharkiv offensive and Kherson offensive notwithstanding.  Though with the last real offensive at Bahkmut stalling out, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that the tide is turning.  Russian telegram channels have been panicking about the upcoming counteroffensive.  If Russian soldiers are similarly scared, they will likely rout.

Unbeliever

Let's hope the tide is turning - into a tsunami! 😎
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

#2368
Poland to supply Ukraine with 24 more self-propelled mortars

If the Russians hope to dig in to survive the coming counterattack, they better dig deep!

Unbeliever

As the "beat" generation used to say, I can dig it! ⛏️
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman