Before the invasion, the Kremlin built a vast network of collaborators.  Most took the money and ran.  Some reported it.  Only a few stayed loyal to Putin and a lot of those have been arrested.

QuoteAccording to the FT, Medvedchuk tried to convince Putin that Ukrainians would welcome Russian forces — prompting Putin to send large amounts of cash his way in order to pay off local officials and build a collaborator network.

With that supposed wellspring of pro-Russian support in Ukraine, the Kremlin envisioned installing Medvedchuk as leader the moment Kyiv had fallen.

But none of this happened. Some of the paid-off collaborators assisted the invasion, and helped in the swift capture of areas including Kherson, in southern Ukraine, but most either disappeared with the cash or reported the plan to Ukrainian authorities, the FT reported.

Medvedchuk gives a lot of expensive advice.  I bet he hopes that Putin doesn't resort to cost-cutting measures...

First Leopard 2 tanks arrive in Ukraine



More will arrive in the next 2-3 weeks as Ukrainians complete training

ISW anniversary update:

QuoteThe Kremlin did not comment on the first anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, likely because Russia has failed to achieve any of its stated objectives and has not made significant territorial gains since July 2022.

QuoteDeputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev made inflammatory claims that Russia will win the war and reiterated that it is vital for Russia to achieve its goals to "push back the borders that threaten [Russia] as far as possible, even if they are the borders of Poland."

QuoteSelect Russian milbloggers commented on the Kremlin's silence on the first anniversary of the war. Russian former officer and an avid Kremlin critic Igor Girkin criticized Medvedev's statements as delusional and lamented the fact that no one remembers the severe losses Russian airborne troops suffered during the fight for Hostomel Airfield near Kyiv on February 24, 2022.  Girkin claimed that he had long been forecasting that Russia had embarked upon a protracted and exhausting war. He noted that it is very difficult to defeat a state that receives external support using Russia's unmotivated forces, absent civil society, and strong brainwashing.

Looks like someone's going to fall out a window...

Nostradumbasses from a year ago:









Note that while some are explicitly affiliated with the Kremlin, a lot of this stuff is astroturfing - opinions that seemingly come independently from ordinary concerned citizens but in actually are following a script written by the Kremlin.  Food for thought when you encounter seemingly bizarre opinions in the wild.

Btw, both Russian and Chinese state media lobbied to get that state media identifier removed from Twitter.  I'll give you three guesses as to why.

Mariupol hit three days straight by Ukrainian forces, likely indicating new weapon

The targets were out of HIMARS range, but Ukraine has been busy building new weapons and some secret weapons shipments have trickled in, so it's anyone's guess how the Ukrainians managed to strike a target so far from the frontlines.  All we can say for certain is that no Russian invader in Ukraine is safe at any time.

QuoteUkrainian official Telegram channels said at least 11 or 12 blasts hit Mariupol airport, and two or three explosions on the premises of a steel mill.

QuotePetro Andriushchenko, exiled mayor of Mariupol, in a public statement said the strikes set two major aviation fuel storage sites on fire at the airport, and badly damaged Russian troop quarters at the steel mill. The Ukrinform news agency confirmed the strike locations, and the UNIAN news agency reported a military aviation ammunition storage site had been blow up.

First Supersoldiers, now Death Rays!


Spoiler: it's a conventional weapon.  But tell the Russians that it's a low-orbit ion cannon strike anyway just to see them shake in their jackboots.  Wunderwaffe or not, it clears groups of Russians from the battlefield in the blink of the eye.  That's something they surely think about as they march fast-meander to their doom.

Why NATO tanks are a game-changer:

Russia switches strats to attrition over land-taking

This would make sense with Putin's attempts to gear towards a protracted war.

Though this doesn't seem to be a particularly smart move since Russia is operating under a ticking clock - heavier sanctions and increasingly powerful military aid to Ukraine makes the Russian war effort increasingly difficult and costly.  Russia has already lost most of its best and is struggling to replace its losses, usually with inferior conscripts and tanks.  And of course, Russian forces have suffered far greater attrition than Ukrainian forces.  Time is not on their side.

Given earlier operations, it's unlikely that Putin is a 4-D chess grandmaster but rather a poker player who can't fold without embarrassment, so he bluffs and continues on the best he can.

Quote from: Hydra009 on February 26, 2023, 10:11:01 AMRussia switches strats to attrition over land-taking

This would make sense with Putin's attempts to gear towards a protracted war.

Though this doesn't seem to be a particularly smart move since Russia is operating under a ticking clock - heavier sanctions and increasingly powerful military aid to Ukraine makes the Russian war effort increasingly difficult and costly.  Russia has already lost most of its best and is struggling to replace its losses, usually with inferior conscripts and tanks.  And of course, Russian forces have suffered far greater attrition than Ukrainian forces.  Time is not on their side.

Given earlier operations, it's unlikely that Putin is a 4-D chess grandmaster but rather a poker player who can't fold without embarrassment, so he bluffs and continues on the best he can.

I doubt Russia has the logistics to even mount a very large offensive. Trucks are in short supply and make for easy targets. They have been confiscating them from the general population. They rely on trains, so Ukraine has to keep hitting bridges and rail infrastructure.

Rail infrastructure is quickly and easily repaired, unfortunately.  What Ukraine needs most of all is long-range missiles to strike at military bases and mustering points far from the frontlines to inflict enormous casualties and disrupt invaders before they get anywhere close to the frontlines.

Quote from: Hydra009 on February 26, 2023, 10:55:33 AMRail infrastructure is quickly and easily repaired, unfortunately.  What Ukraine needs most of all is long-range missiles to strike at military bases and mustering points far from the frontlines to inflict enormous casualties and disrupt invaders before they get anywhere close to the frontlines.

Yeah, that would help a lot, but I guess the politics is dicey.

Quote from: Cassia on February 26, 2023, 11:06:07 AMYeah, that would help a lot, but I guess the politics is dicey.

Which is insane because pissing off the genocidal dictator who is already occupied and at his most vulnerable is the least dicey situation possible.

The real problem imho is that our oligarchs hobnob with their oligarchs, so that's why they're dragging their heels and making whatever excuses they think will work.

Quote from: Hydra009 on February 26, 2023, 02:40:37 PMWhich is insane because pissing off the genocidal dictator who is already occupied and at his most vulnerable is the least dicey situation possible.

The real problem imho is that our oligarchs hobnob with their oligarchs, so that's why they're dragging their heels and making whatever excuses they think will work.

Yep, like how Trump admires Putin and Kim. Trump doesn't like the pilots who got shot down, either.