Anti-Vaxers - They are everywhere!

[chill98]

Do you think the upper management and lawyers of the drug companies pay out everyone a drug or vaccine has ever done harm to?. In fact they would seem to do just the opposite and deny every case until the media exposure forces them to do something. All those internal emails, the conversations behind closed doors nobody hears... what do you think they talk about?..

The fact is nobody can say something is safe when it does in fact do harm, that is called a lie by anyone's definition.

From 2006:

... It was alarmed by the number of vaccine induced polio cases (1,600 last year) that repeated doses of OPV were producing. More alarming were the 27,000 cases of polio-like paralysis in children in whom the polio virus was not cultured in the stools. The government was not willing to even enquire how many were left with residual paralysis in this group. There was also clear evidence that many who were already vaccinated, were getting polio paralysis, suggesting the vaccine was not efficacious. In the face of a bureaucracy that would not even acknowledge the problem, the IMA Sub-Committee was left with the unpleasant task of exposing this farce...

...The incidence of polio fell from 24,000 in 1988 to 4,800 in 1994, well before pulse-polio started...

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-features/tp-sundaymagazine/article3232762.ece

From 2012:

Furthermore, while India has been polio-free for a year, there has been a huge increase in non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (NPAFP). In 2011, there were an extra 47,500 new cases of NPAFP. Clinically indistinguishable from polio paralysis but twice as deadly, the incidence of NPAFP was directly proportional to doses of oral polio received. Though this data was collected within the polio surveillance system, it was not investigated. The principle of primum-non-nocere was violated.

http://www.issuesinmedicalethics.org/index.php/ijme/article/view/110/1065

Selecting india and all the years produces a country specific table:

https://extranet.who.int/polis/public/CaseCount.aspx

Back in the pre-vaccine era, polio diagnosis was based on symptoms rather than actual testing.  There is quite a bit of controversy over just how much polio was actually part of the epidemics of past and how much was misdiagnosis.   The India data lends to that controversy with an +80% testing for confirmation.

[Mermaid]

Before the polio vaccine:
http://www.polioeradication.org/tabid/408/iid/138/Default.aspx

[Hakurei Reimu]

The death-to-case ratio for paralytic polio is generally 2%-5% among children and up to 15%-30% for adults (depending on age). It increases to 25%-75% with bulbar involvement.

Think about what having the data on adult deaths means for a minute.

SO to translate for you:

Of the 1% of polio cases which result in SOME TYPE of flaccid paralysis, approx 3.5% of children (age undefined) and A WIDELY VARIABLE adult fluctuation, may die. 

2009 - children 11 and under - 55 million.

Why do you assume that everyone who gets polio is going to be a child? We have statistics for adult paralytic poliomyelitis because adults got polio, too!

1% of 55 million = 550,000 develop flaccid paralysis
of that 2 - 5% may die.

1% of the remaining 263 million = ~3 million
of that 15-30% = 591,000 may die

So I am within an order of magnitude.

But that isn't even the correct way to calculate the numbers.  That is if EVERY child age 11 and under developed some strain of polio in the same year.  But it does verify that your belief regarding MILLIONS is incorrect.

Again, why do you assume that everyone who gets polio is going to be a child under 11 years? Again, we have those statistics because it happens.

A quick search reveals in 1988 (as the global polio erradication program began) there were approx 350,000 polio cases world wide.

That's right. We're trying to eradicate polio... with vaccines... in hope that we could stop administering polio vaccines altogether, exactly like we did with smallpox.

Even with assuming that 350K was ALL paralytic, it was never MILLIONS dead in the USA as you allege (without support).

And you seem to fail to understand what I allege. My analysis assumes that every American is unvaccinated and would get polio sometime in their lives. It doesn't really matter when they get it, just that everyone gets it sometime. And those figures mean that approximately 1 million people now living in the US will die or suffer some serious complication from polio in their lifetimes.

As previously posted, its is not my obligation to think for you.  If you find comfort in beeleeving the party doctrine, feel free to let others define what is real and what is questionable for you.  The 40 minute video was too much of a bother for you, the CDC link was an interesting 5 minute read and you couldn't be bothered with that.

You know, you are the one seeming to parrot the anti-vaxxer lines. On the other hand, I see the very fact that we are eradicating polio with vaccines like we did with smallpox, and it gives me a warm feeling in my heart. When anti-vaxxers manage to make a scourge of mankind go completely extinct (smallpox) and be well on their way to make another go completely extinct (polio), then you may have a point. Until then, .

Or you couldn't process the info due to your own inherent confirmation bias... whatever.

You first.

[Mermaid]

From 2006:

... It was alarmed by the number of vaccine induced polio cases (1,600 last year) that repeated doses of OPV were producing. More alarming were the 27,000 cases of polio-like paralysis in children in whom the polio virus was not cultured in the stools. The government was not willing to even enquire how many were left with residual paralysis in this group. There was also clear evidence that many who were already vaccinated, were getting polio paralysis, suggesting the vaccine was not efficacious. In the face of a bureaucracy that would not even acknowledge the problem, the IMA Sub-Committee was left with the unpleasant task of exposing this farce...

...The incidence of polio fell from 24,000 in 1988 to 4,800 in 1994, well before pulse-polio started...

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-features/tp-sundaymagazine/article3232762.ece

From 2012:

Furthermore, while India has been polio-free for a year, there has been a huge increase in non-polio acute flaccid paralysis (NPAFP). In 2011, there were an extra 47,500 new cases of NPAFP. Clinically indistinguishable from polio paralysis but twice as deadly, the incidence of NPAFP was directly proportional to doses of oral polio received. Though this data was collected within the polio surveillance system, it was not investigated. The principle of primum-non-nocere was violated.

http://www.issuesinmedicalethics.org/index.php/ijme/article/view/110/1065

Selecting india and all the years produces a country specific table:

https://extranet.who.int/polis/public/CaseCount.aspx

Back in the pre-vaccine era, polio diagnosis was based on symptoms rather than actual testing.  There is quite a bit of controversy over just how much polio was actually part of the epidemics of past and how much was misdiagnosis.   The India data lends to that controversy with an +80% testing for confirmation.

You don't listen to facts.

[SGOS]

Jumping in after a long hiatus and skipping everything until the last few posts of this thread, I just wanted to comment about polio, and I have no idea who I might offend, since I haven't followed this closely.  I was in grade school when the first polio vaccine was invented and distributed to schools.  I don't know if some kids didn't participate, but I don't recall any.  After being vaccinated once, we were vaccinated again with a newer vaccine.  One was in sugar cube form.  The other was an injection.

Before the vaccines, Polio was not what I would call rampant, but it was not uncommon, and everyone knew kids or adults in wheel chairs or on crutches that had gotten it and were crippled by it.  I wouldn't wish it on anyone.  Since the vaccines, I don't see those kinds of kids with their useless skinny little legs dragging around anymore.  There might be risks with vaccination, but the risks involved with getting polio were frightening.  It's hard to imagine people fighting against vaccinations for polio.

[chill98]

We have statistics for adult paralytic poliomyelitis because adults got polio, too!

1% of the remaining 263 million = ~3 million
of that 15-30% = 591,000 may die

So I am within an order of magnitude.
Again, why do you assume that everyone who gets polio is going to be a child under 11 years?

It is likely this will be the last response to you in this topic.  You consistently make unsupported claims.

I did not assume, I decided to use that number for convenience. Most polio cases were in children under 8.  Even with adults the information from the CDC was so vague, it is unusable.  15 - 30% of adults??  The CDC hasn't a clue is the fair translation of that particular stat.  And that portion itself SHOULD lead one to ponder wtf....

Children who get polio develop a life long immunity.  Adults will not get it at the levels children do for that portion.  What I am trying to say is your 'within a magnitude' is incorrect. 

[Hijiri Byakuren]

You consistently make unsupported claims.

Pot, hello kettle!

[chill98]

I was in grade school when the first polio vaccine was invented and distributed to schools.  I don't know if some kids didn't participate, but I don't recall any.  After being vaccinated once, we were vaccinated again with a newer vaccine.  One was in sugar cube form.  The other was an injection.

Before the vaccines, Polio was not what I would call rampant, but it was not uncommon, and everyone knew kids or adults in wheel chairs or on crutches that had gotten it and were crippled by it.

Since the vaccines, I don't see those kinds of kids with their useless skinny little legs dragging around anymore.  There might be risks with vaccination, but the risks involved with getting polio were frightening.  It's hard to imagine people fighting against vaccinations for polio.

First, no one is fighting against polio vaccines.  Even the majority of 'anti-vaxxers' are not trying to 'ban' vaccines.  The majority of them (as I understand it) are trying to bring attention to the side-effects they believe they have suffered in one measure or another.

One of my parents was a polio survivor.  Nearly a year in the hospital/rehab.  I grew up with polio discussions and even in that parents case (1940s) doctors at the time could only diagnose via symptoms.  Doctors discussed other possible sources of that parents paralysis in legs reaching up into lower abdomen; paralysis which reversed over time. 

It is true that we do not know how much of that pre-vaccine polio was actually polio.

And thats why I introduced the India information.   They have tested for exactly what is and isn't polio paralysis and the numbers are frightening.

In the 1970s, I knew of 2 different people who had adverse vaccine reactions.  One died, one developed paralysis-- paralysis so bad breathing had to be assisted -- and lingering effects to this day in extremities.  A 3rd was a possible vaccine connection.  The one who died, a 10 year old girl; the medical community of that day tried to blame 'egg allergy' in a girl who regularly ate eggs at home without adverse effect.

In the 1970s, it was freely discussed by doctors as a vaccine connection.

Quote from link below:
"The issue is, the old vaccine against whooping cough had a difficult safety profile," explained Dr. Paul Offit, director of the Vaccine Education Center and a professor of infectious diseases at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia.

It could cause high fevers and seizures in young children, he said -- which understandably worried parents. There were also concerns about possible, albeit rare, neurological effects, Offit added.

https://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/news/fullstory_157114.html

Hence the political maneuvering by the for-profit vaccine manufacturer's to exempt themselves from responsibility in the mid-eighties.  Something one should consider when in fact, they recall medicines all the time when problems arise that were not discovered (or suppressed) during clinical trials.
 
Fickel brought up the devastating effect it is on the parents of these various kids who are possibly damaged by vaccination.  Here's what I would add.  If my kid gets whooping cough, or polio, or measles/mumps/ etc.  insurance recognizes the disease and pays for treatment.  Doctors apply medicine or physical therapy etc to help these sick kids recover.

Not so much for the kids who are harmed by vaccines. Rather the effort is to marginalize these parents.

[Baruch]

No amount of successful doctoring, can cover up the brutal reality of for-profit medicine.  On the other hand, we probably can't afford free fully patient supportive medicine, since so many people are sick or injured or have bad genes.  Eventually someone somewhere has to pay for that free stuff.

[Fickle]

Chill98

First, no one is fighting against polio vaccines.  Even the majority of 'anti-vaxxers' are not trying to 'ban' vaccines.  The majority of them (as I understand it) are trying to bring attention to the side-effects they believe they have suffered in one measure or another.

It is strange how the argument always moves towards the greater good of vaccines in general or the extreme of no vaccinations. It never touches on the individuals who were severerly effected by complications due to vaccinations or the fact there was no compensation. I am by no means against vaccinations, I am against misinformed people who refuse to even acknowledge the downside and pretend it does not exist. An absence of evidence is not evidence of absense and there are many credible studies which show evidence of harm being done. I think I have a fairly high tolerance level concerning other people however popular opinion and stupidity seem to be my weak points.

Not so much for the kids who are harmed by vaccines. Rather the effort is to marginalize these parents.

Everyones a rocket scientist until they are personally effected then not so much. Then they start pointing fingers and laying blame on others for their own ignorance asking everyone how they could let this happen?.

I thought this was an interesting article:
http://www.vaccinationcouncil.org/2012/04/02/smallpox-declared-eradicated-while-still-alive-and-well-by-viera-scheibner-phd/

[Baruch]

Fickle ... all the old disease strains are kept alive in germ warfare labs, in spite of countries saying they won't do that.  China, the US and Russia are big on germ warfare ... just in case the nukes aren't sufficient.

On most issues ... Americans are Black or White ;-(

[Hakurei Reimu]

I could go through a lengthy diatribe, but then I remembered that we have real figures for polio cases/deaths. After all, this was the first mission of the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis (now the March of Dimes Foundation). So, here's what I was able to find:

(From http://vaccines.procon.org/view.additional-resource.php?resourceID=005964)





In both graphs, we see a very stark contrast between the pre-vaccine US and the post-vaccine US. Notice that polio was creeping up prior to 1955, the date of the first polio vaccine. Then, afterward, BAM, the incidence of polio drops like a stone. Furthermore, the deaths/yr from polio does the same thing. So, yes, the polio vaccine was extremely effective. Endemic polio is extinct in this country.

Polio went from ~5,000 cases/yr (1938-ish) to ~50,000 cases/yr (1953-ish) â€" that's a ten-fold increase in 15 years, which grossly outstrips population growth. Extrapolating linearly (rough estimate, the relationship may actually be exponential), that would give us ~231,000 cases/yr in 2015. In 1952, there were ~58,000 cases of polio, and of that, there were ~3,125 deaths from all polio complications (not just paralysis). This gives us a real death rate of 5%. If everyone in the US today were infected with polio (unrealistic), then we could expect a death toll of around 16 million. (Again, this is death from all polio complications, not just paralysis.) As such, a more realistic death toll based on projected cases/yr in 2015 would be ~12,000 per year.

Now, mind, this is just amongst the people who happened to be symtomatic, which would be only about 0.07% of the US population. In the 1990's, we achieved somewhere around 80% polio immunization, and in that a five year period there were 540 reported deaths due to the polio vaccine itself (again, all vaccine complications). However, that's in a five year period, so the death toll per year is around a hundred. Around that time, the population of the US was ~250 million, so the actual death rate due to the vaccine is about one in 2 million (0.00005%).

Yes, that means that polio, which would only be symtomatic in 0.07% of the US population, would accrue 120 times the deaths that the polio vaccine would, even with near universal immunization.

The polio vaccine is safe by any reasonable definition of the word. It is effective. It made endemic polio extinct in this country, and it reduced death by 120 times. The anti-vaxxers simply don't have any leg to stand on.

[Hakurei Reimu]

Chill98
It is strange how the argument always moves towards the greater good of vaccines in general or the extreme of no vaccinations. It never touches on the individuals who were severerly effected by complications due to vaccinations or the fact there was no compensation. I am by no means against vaccinations, I am against misinformed people who refuse to even acknowledge the downside and pretend it does not exist.

No, we're not arguing that the downside "doesn't exist." We acknowledge that there can be severe complications for vaccines, up to and including death. The problem with your side is that this is about what is the smart move. What is the move that, if followed by everyone, would result in the most favorable outcome? It turns out that universal vaccination does result in the most favorable outcome.

And yes, some people are going to be harmed by that, but it's not really anyone's fault. There's really no way to know you are going to be allergic to a vaccine (or have any other adverse reaction) until it's given to you. We cannot know who will fall into that category until the vaccine is given. But we do know the odds, and the odds strongly favor giving the vaccines. It's like blaming Hershey's for uncovering your child's chocolate allergy with anaphylactic shock.

Companies like Merek are shielded from lawsuits because it would be bad for everyone if those lawsuits were to even be brought to court, again because vaccines are so marginal profit-wise (you get maybe five doses of a particular vaccine in your lifetime, compared to hundreds of doses of other drugs). If sued, pharmaceuticals would simply drop vaccines from their product lines, and we'd be stuck with dwindling herd immunity and a triumphal return of the very scourges that we had on the retreat for almost a century.

[Baruch]

"If followed by everyone" ... does that mean if one of us eats chitlins, we all have to eat chitlins?

With an infectious disease, "everyone" is a good goal, unless it can be proven harmful to a particular individual, not just because they don't like the idea.  Hopefully any residual non-vaxers are free of that disease, otherwise they have to be kept isolated until they are free of it.

[chill98]

I thought this was an interesting article:
http://www.vaccinationcouncil.org/2012/04/02/smallpox-declared-eradicated-while-still-alive-and-well-by-viera-scheibner-phd/

Thanks for the link, it was interesting.