New Year's celebrations in Kyiv and Moscow:

Russians lose 760 troops today

As rare a black scottish cyclops, we have everyone's favorite Aussie military-industrial-complex powerpoint presenter, Perun!


One part that particularly stuck out to me was the Russians having to ease up on artillery due to shortages, even going so far as to use tanks as artillery.

Now, I'm not a military expert, but I'm pretty sure using tanks as improvised artillery is a very inefficient and largely ineffective use for tanks.

No wonder the latest kill counts have been so high - Ukrainian forces flattened a Russian base at Makiivka with HIMARS, causing 100+ casualties

Fun fact: the Russian soldiers were bunched together and lacked any sort of bunkers (yes, 10 months into war and bunkers are still a novel idea).  The Russians lamented the fact that their comrades were such easy targets and blame their criminally inept commanders first and foremost.




QQ, N00BS

720+ invader KIA today.  Ukraine is a deathtrap for mobiks.

To put these sorts of figures in perspective, a full-strength Russian battalion is around 700-800 troops.  Even before the war, Russia had been fielding undermanned battalions, around 2/3 or 3/4 of full strength.  Early on in the war, before HIMARS, Ukrainian attrition had reduced them to as low as half full strength or even less in some cases, in the 300s or even 200s in extreme cases.

Ukraine has recently been consistently wiping out 700+ troops EVERY.  SINGLE.  DAY.

That's definitely one, maybe two whole battalions.  And militaries are a lot like businesses in that they can handle losing a couple of people and still get their work done.  But you lose half your staff and productivity goes down dramatically.  50% losses doesn't leave you with a 50% effective workforce - there are some positions that the remainder don't know how to fill, morale problems further erode the workforce, etc.

Not even a year into it, some units have already been almost completely destroyed.  And raising conscripts doesn't undo that.  When you raise conscripts to reinforce a nearly destroyed battalion, you don't get a replenished battalion, you get a nearly destroyed battalion with a lot of conscripts.  It's like adding water to beer, you don't end up with more beer.  :P

The point is, Russia is hemorrhaging its best and most capable soldiers in Ukraine and if these losses continue, Russian military capabilities will be dramatically reduced.

Russia will, of course, retaliate by killing some retired Ukrainians as they sleep in Kyiv, and maybe taking out a few schools.

LOL @ the HIMARS decked out in lights.  It looks like something out of Tron.  And the Russians have yet to destroy a single one.  Pathetic.

Quote from: Hydra009 on January 02, 2023, 10:51:07 PM

It must be the result of Putin-era brain drain. The Soviets were actually way more clever than "democratic Russia" is, LOL. Or maybe it was because the Soviet Union included Ukraine, etc.

Quote from: Cassia on January 02, 2023, 11:25:03 PMIt must be the result of Putin-era brain drain. The Soviets were actually way more clever than "democratic Russia" is, LOL. Or maybe it was because the Soviet Union included Ukraine, etc.

Imho, it was Ukraine.  Ukrainian innovation, Russian stagnation.

Also, there appears to be a huge demographic gap between the two countries, at least in leadership - most Russian officials are downright geriatric (in Putin's case, that description is literally true) compared to their fresh-faced Ukrainian counterparts.

Quote from: Hydra009 on January 03, 2023, 12:53:01 AMImho, it was Ukraine.  Ukrainian innovation, Russian stagnation.

Also, there appears to be a huge demographic gap between the two countries, at least in leadership - most Russian officials are downright geriatric (in Putin's case, that description is literally true) compared to their fresh-faced Ukrainian counterparts.

The only "powerful" young men in Russia are the entitled brats of those geriatrics - without getting into specifics, an acquaintance of mine shared some
interesting stories of one of these kids that they knew each other through work.

Exactly what you would expect of any young man raised by a emotionally - if not also physically - abusive crime lord as a father and god only knows what of a mother in a culture that promotes idiocy, illiteracy, deviancy and all sorts of -cys you can come up with - he was a "cool dude" until he wasn't, and when he was he a psycho.

Bellow them... I don't know enough about the Russian underworld to say, but I cant say I've been impressed by what I've seen. The Sicilians knew politics, how to run a criminal underworld - they ran an entire country and brushed elbows with Senators and mayors, even Presidents and Prime Ministers. Helping maintain peace amongst the poor was in their best interest - their was no power to stop them; they were the biggest power shy of a mass uprising.

The Russian mafia only knows how to enforce for the state - they ultimately have someone holding their leashes. So they are barbaric - "what do I give shit about who I hurt? My boss can fuck me up, so what can he do to these yokel peasant fucks? Flash my ak-fucking-47 in your face you ***** in my BMW bitch! He didn't pay protection - send the police to go break his knees, why would we get our hands messy? We are out here making fucking bank man!"

It's closer to the cartels and street gangs than a "mafia", and while their parents are smart enough to understand that business suits and polite manners will get you far further in the world of power than curses and public displays of being under the influence or beating people on camera will only make you a small fish in the pond... do you think this next generation is smart enough to understand this? The Sicilianos didn't, will the Muskovites make the same mistake?

The old guard of Russia is growing old - and this young generation is unfit to lead. One way or another, Russia is thoroughly fucked - and they truly cannot blame anyone but themselves, because holy shit did they make some dumb fucking choices along the way. And while America has done a lot of the same stupid shit, man... even we gotta sit back and look in awe.

Quote from: Shiranu on January 03, 2023, 01:16:37 AMThe old guard of Russia is growing old - and this young generation is unfit to lead. One way or another, Russia is thoroughly fucked - and they truly cannot blame anyone but themselves, because holy shit did they make some dumb fucking choices along the way. And while America has done a lot of the same stupid shit, man... even we gotta sit back and look in awe.

Yeah, Russia under Putin has been acting with huge and often faulty assumptions (we'll be welcomed as liberators, the US/EU won't sanction us and if they do they will stop if we cut off the gas, etc) and only in terms of short-term goals (<10 years in the future) with little thought for anything long-term.  Frozen conflicts in their sphere of influence, brain drain, demographic issues, etc.

China is much more dangerous because it's more aware of reality and much better at long-term planning.

Awful that Ukraine has suffered heavy losses as well, but it looks like Bakhmut will continue to hold.

Meanwhile, the Russian kia count is 750, yet another busy day for the Ukrainians.  Russia simply can't continue this pace - it'll break and break hard.

Quote from: Hydra009 on January 03, 2023, 09:03:56 AMMeanwhile, the Russian kia count is 750, yet another busy day for the Ukrainians.  Russia simply can't continue this pace - it'll break and break hard.

Except they are mostly ethnic minorities that are left to the sunflowers and the pureblood Russians might even be pleased to a certain extent. Given Europe's relatively anemic contributions (except for states like Latvia, Estonia and Poland that are next in line), this war could ultimately depend on continued US support and election outcomes. Besides the fossil fuel, Germany may have historical reasons for not going all in.

Is it just me? I have not been a fan of India's cozy-up with Putin over the years. This may be related to India's Muslim neighbor than anything.

Here is some more recent data

Estonia is really pulling its weight.