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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009



Russian pilots, can you guys see okay?  Need a map to help you find not-Russia?  Need a place to go sleep it off? (presumably near the garbage bins at the hangar)


Hydra009

#3541
Ukraine strikes Russia's Engels airbase

This is the main staging grounds for Russian aviation to launch cruise missiles to bombard Ukraine, typically launching over the Caspian Sea.

Russia has "attempted" to protect its aircraft by painting silhouettes on the concrete (minus the shadow, so they look basically nothing like real planes)

Additionally, they're still using rubber tires as extra armor - something I suspected was initially done in a fit of madness was somehow approved and allowed to continue by the higher ups.  The conspicuous presence of tires adorning the real thing but not the decoy, further degrading the silhouettes' already dubious effectiveness.

Anyway, the base was hit and the extent of the damage is currently unknown.

Hydra009

Entire Russian platoon deserts, heads towards Crimea

Quote"Nearly 40 invaders left their trenches and tried to flee toward Crimea, while remaining armed," he told Espreso TV.

"I'm talking about an entire platoon of the Russian army. There were reports that they were being hunted down in an attempt to bring them back."

Shtupun said Russian commanders on the front lines are issuing execution threats to get men to assault Ukrainian positions, saying: "This is how they stimulate invaders to execute assault missions.

QuoteShtupun also said a recent cold snap and unsanitary conditions are causing a rise in desertions with 30 Russian soldiers surrendering in a four-day period.

Kyiv Post could not independently verify Shtupun's specific claim but increases in desertion rates among Russian troops have been documented by independent groups in recent months, as well as several videos of soldiers being maltreated or claiming they've been deceived into fighting on the front.

Hydra009


Cassia

Apparently the T90 tank features explosive reactive armor (ERA) that can be defeated by the newer tandem-charged anti-tank weapons. The 1st charge sets off the ERA and the 2nd hits all that ammo stored inside the tank. WWII is over; tanks need all kinds of support just to survive these days. Even in WW2 a soldier with a Panzerfaust could take out a tank, but they had to get really close.

Hydra009

Quote from: Cassia on January 12, 2024, 05:23:25 PM Apparently the T90 tank features explosive reactive armor (ERA) that can be defeated by the newer tandem-charged anti-tank weapons. The 1st charge sets off the ERA and the 2nd hits all that ammo stored inside the tank. WWII is over; tanks need all kinds of support just to survive these days. Even in WW2 a soldier with a Panzerfaust could take out a tank, but they had to get really close.

Hydra009


Today is a historic day

First, Ukraine is getting a huge aid package worth £2.5 billion over the course of this year (currently, £1 = $1.27 usd, so...carry the one...nearly $3.2 billion usd)  Included in the package is a treasure trove of military aid - air defense, anti-tank weapons, long-range weapons, various munitions, military training, and last but not least...£200 million (nearly $255 million usd) worth of drones.  Reconnaissance drones, long-range attack drones, FPV drones (current MVP), etc.  Suffice is to say that $255 million usd will buy a LOT of drones.

Second, and this is equally important, formal security guarantees from the UK:

QuoteAccording to the agreement, in the event of future Russian armed attack against Ukraine, participants will consult within 24 hours to determine the measures needed to counter or deter the aggression. In those circumstances, the UK would provide Ukraine with security assistance, modern military equipment, and economic assistance.

This Agreement is valid for ten years, and if Ukraine joins NATO sooner, the participants will decide on its future status, the document states.
While this document doesn't exactly throw open the gates of Janus, it does trigger consultations if Ukraine is attacked and obligates the UK to provide rapid assistance.  Zelenskyy said that "if such guarantees had been achieved in 1991, in particular with Britain, then the war would not have begun."

Obviously, grievous mistakes were made in expecting Dictator Putin to abide by the 1991 Budapest Memorandum in which Ukraine's nuclear arms were voluntarily surrendered to Russia in exchange for guarantees from Russia to respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and borders.  Dictators by their very nature are untrustworthy, a painful lesson freshly learned that should be borne in mind in any future dealings with Putin and any other dictators around the world.  Dictatorships cannot be relied upon except to come to each other's aid against the free world and it is for this reason that the countries within the free world must rely even more closely upon each other than in the past.

Hydra009

#3547
Special brew just for you: Partisans suspected of poisoning Russian troops in Crimea get in shootout with police, on the run

This is a follow-up to a previously reported story of two "nice girls" poisoning Russian troops by poisoning their vodka with arsenic and strychnine, which killed 24 Russian troops.

QuoteThe police went to apprehend the female suspects at a private house in Yalta but were surprised to find them "well armed" and "well prepared," the post said.

The saboteurs opened fire and fled the scene in a car, and authorities do not know their current whereabouts.

Three officers were killed and two were wounded in the shoot-out, a source in Russia's Federal Security Service told the Telegram channel.
Amateur hour for those Russians, lol

Not only were troops poisoned by basically the oldest trick in the book, but the investigators got into a shootout they weren't prepared for AND lost the perps.  Who was in charge, Sergeant Schultz?


Unbeliever

This is all going to make a great movie someday...
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Quote from: Unbeliever on January 13, 2024, 03:20:02 PMThis is all going to make a great movie someday...
20 days In Mariupol already got good reviews.

Hydra009


Bradley (27.6 ton vehicle, 25mm main armament) VS T-90 (46 tons plus the weight of the pagoda, 125 mm main armament)
Place your bets!

Bradley gets off a couple hits on the apparently unsuspecting T-90 (smoke break?) before passing behind cover just in time to avoid the T-90's retaliatory strike.  T-90 wastes a shot on the ground.

Video abruptly cuts to a big explosion on the retreating T-90 (that video about the T-90s poor reverse speed appears to have been prescient).  The front of the T-90 appears to be on fire from a hit just under the cannon (coincidentally, a weakly armored place and widely-known flaw) turret spins around in an uncontrolled manner and tank slams into tree, coming to a halt.

Step-FPV drone, what are you doing???  And...boom goes the dynamite.  Left side burns to ash.  Miraculously, the Russian tank crew survive long enough to scramble out into the cold...with Ukrainian drones watching their every move.  Not sure what happened to them after that, but surrendering would have been the best possible outcome.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on January 14, 2024, 12:02:12 AMBradley (27.6 ton vehicle, 25mm main armament) VS T-90 (46 tons plus the weight of the pagoda, 125 mm main armament)
Place your bets!

Bradley gets off a couple hits on the apparently unsuspecting T-90 (smoke break?) before passing behind cover just in time to avoid the T-90's retaliatory strike.  T-90 wastes a shot on the ground.

Video abruptly cuts to a big explosion on the retreating T-90 (that video about the T-90s poor reverse speed appears to have been prescient).  The front of the T-90 appears to be on fire from a hit just under the cannon (coincidentally, a weakly armored place and widely-known flaw) turret spins around in an uncontrolled manner and tank slams into tree, coming to a halt.

Step-FPV drone, what are you doing???  And...boom goes the dynamite.  Left side burns to ash.  Miraculously, the Russian tank crew survive long enough to scramble out into the cold...with Ukrainian drones watching their every move.  Not sure what happened to them after that, but surrendering would have been the best possible outcome.
Looks like some of the 25mm got into the front of the turret somehow. I wonder if the Bradley was too close for the TOW missiles that could have killed the tank straight away. I remember seeing a video during the first days of the war when a home brewed Ukrainian IFV got a Russian T72.

Hydra009


Hydra009

#3554
According to the Ukrainians, the A-50 AWACS was downed over the Avoz Sea and the Il-22 was damaged and contact was lost, presumably destroyed.

The Russians posted an image of a plane with shrapnel damage throughout the tail wing, presumably evidence that the Il-22 landed safely despite extensive damage.

However, before we draw conclusions, the photo was only of the tail wing and undated.  It's not even clear that that's the same type of plane, let alone the plane in question.  So imho, that is proof only that a plane was damaged, which is not very helpful.

A Russian telegram channel also says that the British blinded the A-50 equipment and/or crew, then blew it up with manpads (James Bond pitch meeting?) before it veered off to some weird rant about Israel.  Oddly reminiscient of far-right conspiracy mongering...

Other, much more credible Russian channels offered condolences regarding both planes, seemingly confirming that both were destroyed.  One says it was due to friendly fire - though whether that's because it's true or because he's psychologically unable to admit that the enemy was successful is anyone's guess.

Though I have noticed that when something big happens, the Russians go to great lengths to deny any Ukrainian agency, thus denying Ukrainian strength.  We'll see how that works out for them.