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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Hydra009

#3285
According to intel, North Korean munitions to Russia will stave off shell hunger and give Russia enough munitions to continue shelling throughout 2024, though obviously at a slower rate-of-fire than 2022.

QuoteEstonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center Head Colonel Ants Kiviselg stated on October 20 that Russia still has around four million artillery shells remaining, which Russian forces can use for "low intensity" warfare for an additional year.[1] Kiviselg noted that there are reports that North Korea has shipped up to 1,000 containers of ammunition to Russia, each containing between 300-500 pieces of artillery ammunition.[2] Kiviselg estimated that North Korea may have therefore provided between 300,000-500,000 pieces of ammunition to Russia, which can last up to one month at the current daily rate of consumption of around 10,000 shells a day.
This means that Ukraine's best bet now is to blow up the launchers, because the shells are going to be there pretty much no matter what.

Hydra009

Ukrainian pilots have finished F-16 simulator training and are now training on actual F-16s in Arizona.  Won't be much longer now.

Cassia

Quote from: Hydra009 on October 26, 2023, 08:24:07 AMUkrainian pilots have finished F-16 simulator training and are now training on actual F-16s in Arizona.  Won't be much longer now.
Russia is famous for their anti-aircraft missiles. Won't F-16s just get shot down or is the battle front out of range of missiles because of HIMARS? If they hold the F-16s back they would just be defensive.

Hydra009

#3288
Quote from: Cassia on October 26, 2023, 08:27:58 AMRussia is famous for their anti-aircraft missiles. Won't F-16s just get shot down or is the battle front out of range of missiles because of HIMARS? If they hold the F-16s back they would just be defensive.
It's been a while since I read the benefits of F-16s laid out in a consise way, so bear in mind that I'm working from memory.

But basically, F-16s will allow the Ukrainians to detect and engage Russian aircraft from much farther ranges.  Huge boost in capability and survivability.

F-16s would also counter Russian attack helicopters, which have been a major pain on advancing Ukrainian forces.  They'd be forced to keep their distance or get shot down.  Russian armor faces a similar dilemma.

F-16s will also give the Ukrainians a dependable platform for launching Western bombs and missiles instead of kludging together some bizarre fusion of soviet and western hardware.  So simply having the F-16 will unlock new western technologies for Ukraine, technologies that couldn't feasibly work with old Soviet airframes.

F-16s would also improve Ukrainian anti-air capabilities in general and help shoot down incoming cruise missiles.

What they won't do is give Ukraine air superiority and allow them to launch unrestricted strikes all over Russian-held territory.  Unfortunately.

Hydra009


Hydra009


There is no war in ba sing se.

Unbeliever

I read that Putin had a heart attack this past Sunday, and is in stable condition. But his doctors are not optimistic.
But I read yesterday that Putin is just fine and any rumors to the contrary are false.
So I guess only my hairdresser knows for sure.
🤔
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Quote from: Unbeliever on October 26, 2023, 11:16:58 PMI read that Putin had a heart attack this past Sunday, and is in stable condition. But his doctors are not optimistic.
But I read yesterday that Putin is just fine and any rumors to the contrary are false.
So I guess only my hairdresser knows for sure.
🤔
The heart attack story is poorly sourced and almost certainly false, though I wish it were otherwise.

Still, Putin is an old and increasingly frail man (the shirtless horseback pictures were a deliberate attempt at state propaganda - to paint him as virile and manly as possible while he was at his peak fitness, an image that would likely stick even as his health had started to decline) so a heart attack is still in the cards.  I'm fairly certain his blood pressure spikes anytime anything happens with the Kerch bridge.

Unbeliever

As with the Donald, the worse he feels the better I feel.
God Not Found
"There is a sucker born-again every minute." - C. Spellman

Hydra009

Russia executing own soldiers near Avdiivka

Quote"Russia's mobilised forces remain under-trained, under-equipped and unprepared for combat, as was the case during their failed winter offensive last year," National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in a briefing on Thursday.

He said that the Russian military "appears to be using what we would call 'human wave' tactics, just throwing masses of these poorly trained soldiers right into the fight."

"No proper equipment, no leadership, no resourcing, no support. It is unsurprising that Russian forces are suffering from poor morale," Mr Kirby added.

Hydra009

#3295
Pro-Russian turncoat/collaborator shot twice in Crimea

QuoteTsaryov has been wanted by the Ukrainian authorities since after Russia's initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014 for supporting the Russian occupation of Ukrainian territories.

QuoteU.S. intelligence identified Tsaryov as a potential puppet leader the Kremlin could have installed if they had been successful in occupying Kyiv, according to the New York Times.

Tsaryov openly admitted to the New York Times that he participated in Russia's full-scale invasion.
He's in the hospital in serious condition.

Hydra009

Moscow received a Hamas delegation, the only country to do so after Hamas's stunning massacre of civilians on October 7th.

Terrorists united.

Hydra009

Russian telegram says that a captured Ukrainian - allegedly in Ukraine Military Intelligence - led two Russians (an "investigator" and police officer) to a spot where he had stashed a gun, shot both of them dead, and escaped.

Obviously, this requires confirmation, hopefully from the hero himself - likely immediately followed by a movie deal.

It's also unclear why the prisoner was the one leading law enforcement around.  Traditionally, it's the other way around.  That unorthodox move would seem to have greatly contributed to an unorthodox outcome.

But either the Russians have taken to writing James Bond stories which portray them in an especially negative light or something serious really did happen, though perhaps not quite so dramatic as portrayed.  We'll see.

Hydra009

A tracking device was found in a car in the Polish President's motorcade, though that car was not used by the President himself.

It could've been bugged for months before being detected.  Russia is of course the top suspect.

Hydra009

Russia launched 4 Iskander missiles from occupied Crimea.

3 were shot down and the 4th never reached its target.

What a waste.