Another Russian general removed from combat

This one by memo, not bomb.  Doesn't make much difference to the Ukrainians.

Quotehe was suddenly dismissed from his post after accusing Moscow's Defense Ministry leadership of betraying his troops by not providing sufficient support.

We saw a lot of this from Wagner, too.  Apparently, it's a common tactic of blame-passing.  High command blames the grunts for defeats and the grunts blame high command for those same defeats.  Everyone is blameless because everyone got stabbed in the back.

QuotePopov said he had raised questions about "the lack of counter-battery combat, the absence of artillery reconnaissance stations and the mass deaths and injuries of our brothers from enemy artillery," in a voice note published on Telegram late Wednesday.

Oh, I can answer those questions.

1) the Ukrainians have superior artillery and counter-battery systems and have been blasting Russian counter-battery radars left and right.  That's how they keep winning the artillery duels and inflicting losses on Russian troops.

2) Russian reconnaissance stations were hit by fpv drones.  I saw a compilation video of it.  They just flew those tiny drones into them and BAM! no more Eye of Sauron.

QuoteDefense Minister Sergei Shoigu "signed the order and got rid of me," the general also said in the recording, as he accused the top Kremlin official of treason.

That seems familiar...

Popov notified Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, that his troops needed to be rotated out after fighting in combat for a long time and suffering significant casualties.  The Ukrainians consistently go through roughly 200-400 Russian troops per day along the southern front.

QuoteThe ISW said the reports of Popov's protests, "if true, may support ISW's previous assessments that Russian forces lack operational reserves that would allow them to carry out rotations of personnel defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives and that Russian defensive lines may be brittle."

Music to my ears!

Russia just bombed Snake Island, an uninhabited island.

Afaik, it was because Zelenskyy visited a memorial there a few days ago.  So I guess they just really wanted to bomb a memorial.

Childish, ego-driven moves and not logical or pragmatic moves.  That's how I know Putin gave the order.  It's also how I know that he will lose.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces bombed Tokmak and killed around 200 Russian troops along with the Kremlin-installed commandant

I'll let you decide which strike is more effective at swinging the war.

Ukraine updates:

Wagner leader Prigozhin is in Belarus at that camp they built for them.  Tents with crappy beds, almost has a dorm room feel to it.  There is an extremely unflattering and - I kid you not - borderline NSFW picture of him sitting on one of those beds.  Let's just say that his favorite Reno 911 cop is Lt Dangle and leave it at that.

Wagner will supposedly be training the Belarusian military there.

Putin spun some story about meeting with Wagner, but what's real and what's not whenever "Putin says" is like deciphering a fart.  It's very tedious and unpleasant and after a while, you wonder if there's any point at all.

Russia has redeployed almost all its troops along the Belarusian border, leaving it wide open.  If Lukashenko has any crazy ideas, now is a fantastic time...

Ukraine continues to advance, albeit a little bit at a time.  These things take time.  Especially when Ukraine is trying to be cautious and minimize casualties.  Still, there's some fantastic footage of some artillery blown up, as well as a Russian tank complete with cope cage engulfed in fire and milling about quite literally mindlessly.  Ukraine hit 9 ammo depots along the southern front and a major development is expected at a somewhat unlikely place there but plans love silence, so I shouldn't go into details there.

New military aid to Ukraine continues to pour in.  If Moscow thinks it can ding up a Bradley and the Ukrainian offensive will fail, they're sorely mistaken, because Ukraine gets back what they've lost and more.  Whatever Russia loses, it loses for good.

Reportedly, Russian commander Selivyorstov was fired by Shoigu as well.

He was commander of the 106th Airborne Division, one of four total airborne divisions, and stationed near Bakhmut (Russia relies heavily on remaining airborne units to defend Bakhmut)

Looks like the Russian military is purging commanders who, for one reason or another, have fallen out of favor of the Kremlin.  This internal turmoil may help Ukraine by reducing the effectiveness of Russian commanders, assuming that the more experienced ones are more effective.

Ukraine says it destroyed Russian S-400 missile system used in deadly strike on Kramatorsk

The Russians jury-rig much of their AA to be makeshift artillery.  This one was used in a terror attack on civilians, bombing a pizzeria and killing many of its staff.

A turncoat was reportedly assisting the Russians

That missile launcher has allegedly been destroyed.

When I say that the Ukrainians have gotten really good with drone-dropped munitions, I'm not joking:


https://i.imgur.com/VFMeXpQ.mp4

Right in the 10-ring.  Also, ridiculously cheap de-mining.

(They also hit the mines in-transit, but those videos are waaay more NSFW.  You know that scene in Tremors 2...)

Russian telegram channels are increasingly worried about the weak areas of their defense and a possible Ukrainian breakthrough.

For the people who don't already know,  the Ukrainians changed tactics early in their counteroffensive.  Early on, they used massed armored assaults, but those are too vulnerable to Russian artillery and attack helicopters.  So the Ukrainians changed their tactics, using smaller and more cautious attacks backed up by liberal use of high-precision artillery and drones.  Sometimes, they even manage to draw out Russian forces and ambush them or cut off Russian units from each other and destroy in detail.  And the whole time, they are pounding away at Russian command posts, ammo dumps, and logistics.  Because of this, Ukraine maintains a roughly 4:1 Kill/loss ratio despite being the attacker, which is impressive with very limited air power against an entrenched enemy.

Simply put, the Russians are facing manpower shortages, hence them pulling away border guards from near China and Belarus as well as a stealth mobilization within Russia (in addition to convicts, Russian businesses are "encouraged" to send some of their workers)

But intern-conscripts won't change the outcome of this war.  Russia is simply losing more than they can recruit (and what they recruit is increasingly poor-quality) so the Ukrainian offensive is kept at bay mostly by copius amounts of mines, extensive trenches, remaining Russian artillery, and Russian airpower.

But it doesn't matter how good your fortifications are if the troops manning them die off, and that's steadily what Ukraine has been doing.  This manpower shortage could become a manpower disaster if it continues much longer.

Quote from: Hydra009 on July 16, 2023, 09:37:49 AMRussian telegram channels are increasingly worried about the weak areas of their defense and a possible Ukrainian breakthrough.

For the people who don't already know,  the Ukrainians changed tactics early in their counteroffensive.  Early on, they used massed armored assaults, but those are too vulnerable to Russian artillery and attack helicopters.  So the Ukrainians changed their tactics, using smaller and more cautious attacks backed up by liberal use of high-precision artillery and drones.  Sometimes, they even manage to draw out Russian forces and ambush them or cut off Russian units from each other and destroy in detail.  And the whole time, they are pounding away at Russian command posts, ammo dumps, and logistics.  Because of this, Ukraine maintains a roughly 4:1 Kill/loss ratio despite being the attacker, which is impressive with very limited air power against an entrenched enemy.

Simply put, the Russians are facing manpower shortages, hence them pulling away border guards from near China and Belarus as well as a stealth mobilization within Russia (in addition to convicts, Russian businesses are "encouraged" to send some of their workers)

But intern-conscripts won't change the outcome of this war.  Russia is simply losing more than they can recruit (and what they recruit is increasingly poor-quality) so the Ukrainian offensive is kept at bay mostly by copius amounts of mines, extensive trenches, remaining Russian artillery, and Russian airpower.

But it doesn't matter how good your fortifications are if the troops manning them die off, and that's steadily what Ukraine has been doing.  This manpower shortage could become a manpower disaster if it continues much longer.

Beating the Russians at their own attrition game. Old, sick Putin running out of time.

Quote from: Cassia on July 16, 2023, 10:07:18 AMBeating the Russians at their own attrition game. Old, sick Putin running out of time.

Yep.  Ironically enough, a lesson learned during WWII.

Update on The Purge: Moscow

Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who suspiciously went absent after the Wagner almost-coup, is "taking a rest" according to the Kremlin.

Major General Ivan Popov was fired from his post and reportedly reassigned to Syria.

Major General Vladimir Seliverstov, an Airborne/VDV Commander, has been stripped of his command.  We don't know why, but Russian sources speculated that it was "associated with Seliverstov's reputation for speaking up on behalf of his soldiers."



Meanwhile, on the Ukrainian side:

Denys Prokopenko (Nom de guerre: Redis) the leader of Azov (a name vatniks fear) has been returned to Ukraine from Turkey and is now ready to return to service.

According to his wikipedia page, "Under the agreement, Prokopenko and four other top Ukrainian commanders from the Azovstal siege will be required to stay in Turkey until the end of the war."  LOL.  Ain't nobody got time for that!