Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

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US comes to Ukraine's aid!

There was tentative stuff before, but I didn't want to report about it unless it was a done deal.  Well, it's a done deal now!

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Ukraine hits Russian refineries

I found a real gut-buster on reddit about Ukraine's ongoing oil sanctions campaign against Russia:  https://packaged-media.redd.it/lifzz2on3ioc1/pb/m2-res_480p.mp4?m=DASHPlaylist.mpd&v=1&e=1710763200&s=6a4a27162a8596d6ff06a2fab29b3347e2b391c8#t=0

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US citizen who fought for Russia reportedly killed by Russians

On a Telegram channel previously run by him, Bentley's wife Lyudmila has said he had been "abducted" by Russian soldiers from a tank battalion, calling on them to let him go.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Bentley

He certainly had a wandering history and not great critical thinking skills, which saw him increasingly under the influence of Second World narratives and also felony drug trafficking (he visited Cuba and evidently brought souvenirs back to the US).  His hot takes are breathtakingly asinine and/or easily disproven - he reportedly said that the reason the "operation" was taking so long is because Russia was being careful to minimize civilian casualties.  Literally couldn't drain the water from a pail even if instructions were printed on the side.  Good riddance.

[Cassia]

US citizen who fought for Russia reportedly killed by Russians
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Bentley

He certainly had a wandering history and not great critical thinking skills, which saw him increasingly under the influence of Second World narratives and also felony drug trafficking (he visited Cuba and evidently brought souvenirs back to the US).  His hot takes are breathtakingly asinine and/or easily disproven - he reportedly said that the reason the "operation" was taking so long is because Russia was being careful to minimize civilian casualties.  Literally couldn't drain the water from a pail even if instructions were printed on the side.  Good riddance.

Holy ham sandwiches. Reports say his nice Russian friends raped and tortured him before killing him. What a way to go. He was pro-communism. He did realize that The Russian Federation is no longer the USSR, right? Why are there so many fucking crazy-ass Americans? Liked that guy who cooked himself, leaving a gibberish conspiracy manifesto. 

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Holy ham sandwiches. Reports say his nice Russian friends raped and tortured him before killing him. What a way to go.

That's unconfirmed.  We don't know for a fact that he's dead, either.  But his "comrades" claim to be avenging him by attacking Ukrainians - who didn't kill him - so that's as close to a confirmation that we're going to get.

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[Dark Lightning]

^ Fuck the chump, with a red hot tire iron. I can't wait for the day that sorry piece of shit succumbs from inhaling some mickey dee's "food".

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The Russians are likely to intensify their efforts,  exploiting Ukraine materiel shortages before Czech initiative ammo and US aid comes through.  But when they do, it's a whole different ball game.

I'm not sure what the Russian brass is thinking right now.  They know they can't take Kyiv or collapse the front.  If they throw more men at it, they might be able to level three more Ukrainian towns, but what does that accomplish?  What's the endgame?  Putin is too scared to lose, but he should've thrown in the towel over a year ago when he probably could have had good terms.  Now he's up shit creek with Ukraine getting increasingly advanced weapons and Russia relying on worse and worse equipment.  Granted, the Ukrainians probably won't be able to conduct a major offensive this year, but spring/summer 2025 is going to be a helluva shock for them.

[Nonsensei]

The Russians are likely to intensify their efforts,  exploiting Ukraine materiel shortages before Czech initiative ammo and US aid comes through.  But when they do, it's a whole different ball game.

I'm not sure what the Russian brass is thinking right now.  They know they can't take Kyiv or collapse the front.  If they throw more men at it, they might be able to level three more Ukrainian towns, but what does that accomplish?  What's the endgame?  Putin is too scared to lose, but he should've thrown in the towel over a year ago when he probably could have had good terms.  Now he's up shit creek with Ukraine getting increasingly advanced weapons and Russia relying on worse and worse equipment.  Granted, the Ukrainians probably won't be able to conduct a major offensive this year, but spring/summer 2025 is going to be a helluva shock for them.

I think he was banking on his assets in congress preventing aid to Ukraine for much longer than they managed, forcing Ukraine to capitulate. Its been a long, long time since I felt good about anything congress has done but this qualifies. I only regret that aid was ever allowed to be held up at all in the first place. Trying not to think about how many dead Ukrainians that delay translates into.

I also worry that Putin has pushed every chip he owns into the pile. Failure just isn't an option for him now. Not too keen on seeing what a murdering despot with a nuclear arsenal does when his back is against a wall.

[Cassia]

That's unconfirmed.  We don't know for a fact that he's dead, either.  But his "comrades" claim to be avenging him by attacking Ukrainians - who didn't kill him - so that's as close to a confirmation that we're going to get.

New York Post now reporting Bentley's body has been recovered. His tee shirts sums up his confusion. A communist/christian warrior, thinks he is de-Nazifying a nation under attack (from an absolute dictator) with a Jewish leader and a far-right segment of the population that measures less than 3%. He should have invested in some sort of historical education instead of assault weapons.

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UK announces biggest military package yet to Ukraine

60 boats including offshore raiding craft, rigid raiding craft and dive boats as well as maritime guns
More than 1,600 strike and air defence missiles, as well as additional Storm Shadow long-range precision-guided missiles.
More than 400 vehicles, including 160 protected mobility 'Husky' vehicles, 162 armoured vehicles and 78 all-terrain vehicles.
Nearly 4 million rounds of small arms ammunition.

[Unbeliever]

Cheerio, old chap! 🫡

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Himars strike on Russian air defense radar

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Senate passes Ukraine aid bill

Now, it's on to the President, who has already said he'd sign it.