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Will Putin Invade Ukraine?

Started by Cassia, January 20, 2022, 01:29:34 PM

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Shiranu

Every day is a good day to *remove from server* an autocrat.



Hydra009


Cassia

I read that Russians primarily consume govt. TV. Do they really believe it? After seeing what happens here, I think yes, most probably do.

Hydra009

#185
Quote from: Cassia on March 12, 2022, 10:56:28 AMI read that Russians primarily consume govt. TV. Do they really believe it? After seeing what happens here, I think yes, most probably do.
Unclear.

Thousands have protested the war or otherwise shown their displeasure (like the viral clip of the Russian pilot publically calling Putin's invasion criminal).  It's safe to assume that these people do not agree with the pro-invasion state media.

On the flip side of the coin, there are calls from russian soldiers to relatives who seem genuinely surprised to learn that the Ukrainians aren't welcoming them with open arms and that Russian forces have intentionally killed civilians.

The plurality, I suspect, are somewhere in the middle.  Confused and generally aware that the situation is not good, but not privy to much details and/or feeling powerless to express any opinion at all.

They're misled successfully to some degree, but they're not stupid.  I assume that most Russians do not genuinely believe Putin when he says that the sanctions would've happened regardless (most countries make it through the day without getting sanctioned for no reason) and don't believe that Russia hasn't invaded anyone and the Ukrainians are firing upon themselves, as some officials have stated.

Putin's Big Lie strategy and its ability to fool only a fairly small subset of people already distrustful of facts reminds me a lot of a certain someone...


Emperor Ronny Raygun

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 12, 2022, 01:07:00 PMUnclear.



What's also unclear is the level of pro-war/[operation] support in Russia. A few thousand protestors doesn't represent a majority opposition. Although being arrested and detained could be a deterrent .... 15 years for media. The data is dirty.

If Zelensky cared about his people, he'd negotiate, not arm civilians and coerce them to their almost certain deaths.   

Putin is evil. To put it in Biblical terms, Putin is zombie Jesus and this is Ukraine's Apocalypse. Repent or burn.


Mike Cl

Quote from: Emperor Ronny Raygun on March 13, 2022, 11:59:16 PMWhat's also unclear is the level of pro-war/[operation] support in Russia. A few thousand protestors doesn't represent a majority opposition. Although being arrested and detained could be a deterrent .... 15 years for media. The data is dirty.

If Zelensky cared about his people, he'd negotiate, not arm civilians and coerce them to their almost certain deaths.   

Putin is evil. To put it in Biblical terms, Putin is zombie Jesus and this is Ukraine's Apocalypse. Repent or burn.


That's what Pat Robertson says--God made Putin attack the Ukraine which puts his attack closer to Israel and hence the end times.
Is God willing to prevent evil, but not able?<br />Then he is not omnipotent,<br />Is he able but not willing?<br />Then whence cometh evil?<br />Is he neither able or willing?<br />Then why call him god?

Emperor Ronny Raygun

Quote from: Mike Cl on March 14, 2022, 12:14:54 AMThat's what Pat Robertson says--God made Putin attack the Ukraine which puts his attack closer to Israel and hence the end times.

Qanon needs to know about Putin's immaculate conception.

Hydra009

Quote from: Emperor Ronny Raygun on March 13, 2022, 11:59:16 PMIf Zelensky cared about his people, he'd negotiate, not arm civilians and coerce them to their almost certain deaths.
LOL, he's about to begin the fourth round of negotiations soon.

And afaik, those civilians are arming themselves because they're being invaded, which is kinda pretty typical when countries are invaded.  What did you expect?

Hydra009


Suffice it to say that there's some quite passionate opposition to Putin's invasion.

Cassia

Anti-war statement of Channel One editor Marina Ovsyannikova. Prerecorded, I presume as she is probably in jail or worse.

Hydra009

#193
Assessment of Russian invasion of Ukraine from Chinese professor

Long read but worth the time

QuoteI. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

1.  Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin's attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia's domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine's capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin's best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.

Extremely quotable:  "A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little."

SGOS

Quote from: Hydra009 on March 15, 2022, 12:50:55 AMAssessment of Russian invasion of Ukraine from Chinese professor
The Chinese perspective may be close to spot on, but I doubt it will have any effect on the immediate situation, because I think Putin is a mad man.  He reminds me of George Bush, but without a smarter vice president to lead him and orchestrate an effective propaganda campaign.  I don't see any change in Putin's position as he meets unexpected resistance.  He has just doubled down and changed his goal from a take over to utter destruction. And I don't think he envisions stopping with the Ukraine. I feel much closer to nuclear war than I did during the Cuban missile crisis. I'm hoping for Putin's assassination from an insider and a restructuring of the leadership.  I said hoping.  This is far from a prediction, but I see no positive resolution ahead; Just a lot of bloodshed and unhappy people in a world that is already suffering in chaos.