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e3323
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LogicX
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Joined: 10 Mar 2007
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 Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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hes already wrong
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e3323
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JBCuzISaidSo
Jaded Humanist
Joined: 22 Feb 2008
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Location: South Florida
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: |
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Well jeez:
| Quote: | | Kurzweil came to realize that his success as an inventor depended largely on proper timing: His new inventions had to be released onto the market only once many other, supporting technologies had come into existence. A device issued too early and without proper refinement would lack some key element of functionality, and a device put out too late would find the market already flooded with a different product, or consumers demanding something better. |
This seems like a "no shit, Sherlock" moment to me.
'Predictions' is a bad choice of wording. In my humble opinion! 
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LogicX
Übermensch
Joined: 10 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 9:38 pm Post subject: |
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His predictions seem cool, but how does he know that things will happen around a certain time period without it being complete speculation?
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munky99999
Provisional moralist.
Joined: 02 Feb 2004
Posts: 4671
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Location: Ontario, Canada
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| Posted: Mon Aug 18, 2008 10:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Translating telephones allow people to speak to each other in different languages. |
First problem is that you need a program capable of understand speech. If you followed the progression of dragon naturally speaking... this is a very very hard thing to do because of accents and everything. Then you have to translate... which if you know more then 1 language and have tested the translators... they arents all that great... if you use them for very simply formal language they are good... but slang doesnt go through. Then you have to put those together? which is pure fail right there.
| Quote: | | Machines designed to transcribe speech into computer text allow deaf people to understand spoken words. |
Someone should check this one... this technology has dinosaur shit on it... that's how old it is. He probably predicted something that already existed.
| Quote: | | Exoskeletal, robotic leg prostheses allow the paraplegic to walk. |
we are sort of getting there in good shape now.
| Quote: | | Telephone calls are routinely screened by intelligent answering machines that ask questions to determine the call's nature and priority. |
This I know he predicted after it was made... this is soooo old.
| Quote: | | "Cybernetic chauffeurs" can drive cars for humans and can be retrofitted into existing cars. They work by communicating with other vehicles and with sensors embedded along the roads. |
never ever happen. The logistical needs for this is so expensive... nobody will ever put up the money for those upfront costs.
| Quote: | | The classroom is dominated by computers. Intelligent courseware that can tailor itself to each student by recognizing their strengths and weaknesses. Media technology allows students to manipulate and interact with virtual depictions of the systems and personalities they are studying. |
Same problem as the last one. You might as well eliminate teachers if you can pay the money for such applications.
| Quote: | | A small number of highly skilled people dominates the entire production sector. Tailoring of products for individuals is common. |
capitalism? This prediction is just plain simple.
| Quote: | | Drugs are designed and tested in simulations that mimic the human body. |
Either he's full of shit again predicted things that exist for ages... or he's suggesting something like scientists grow stem cell people but keep them in a coma. Which would have even myself screaming ethics on... so fuck that.
| Quote: | | Blind people navigate and read text using machines that can visually recognize features of their environment. |
This sounds like an ambiguous prediction. IT seems to be saying that some video cameras are on his head and it transmits neuro speak to the brain literally creating vision for a blind person. However we already know this is impossible. The best are sensors which make a sort of neurological pain sensation in directions of things.
| Quote: | | PCs are capable of answering queries by accessing information wirelessly via the Internet. |
Ya I'd love when that happens lol... black hat hackers would nerdgasm over that. Open port constantly with connection details and protocol all laid out... haha ya right.
| Quote: | | Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. |
lmfao. If anyone recalls the first video phones where you would call a person on the phone and you would have a tv right there like a webcam to talk. Yet it failed horribly because only like 2 people bought them. Webcams and such became the poorman's way of doing it... but still... now think of holographic technology and apply the same sort of bandwidth and costs for that. Not a chance.
| Quote: | | By 2020, there will be a new World government. |
12 years to go. HAHA good funny jokes. MAYBE we get a north american union... but i really really doubt that one. World government? Only possibility is some super powerful aliens show up and become the world government.
| Quote: | | A computer passes the Turing Test, becoming the first true Artificial Intelligence. |
What needs to be done is not that it is capable of fooling people but really that it can teach itself. The real AI would be one that is very basic programming but uses it's programming to learn and reprogram itself with new protocols and capabilities.
Ya most of his "predictions" are just plain simple that just about anyone can predict or self-fulfilling.
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A cosmic Jewish Zombie who was his own father can make you live forever if you symbolically eat his fleshand drink his blood; while telepathically tell him you accept him as your master so he can remove an evil force from your soul that is present in humanity because a rib-woman was convinced by a talking snake to eat from a magical tree.
You cant outsmart me; you can only outnumber me. |
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Eyedunno
The Great JuJu at the Bottom of the Sea
Joined: 13 Aug 2005
Posts: 3725
Local time: 4:35 AM
Location: Cin City, OH!
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| Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 12:23 am Post subject: |
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This is the same thing you get from a lot of people who extrapolate present trends into the future - some accuracy, some shortsightedness, and some wildly excessive optimism.
Star Trek has people of different colors and ethnicities being treated as equals. It also has technology that can warp spacetime, and yet they have analog readouts on their ship. |
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chookrooter
Forum Leader
Joined: 07 Jun 2008
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| Posted: Tue Aug 19, 2008 7:25 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | yet they have analog readouts on their ship. |
Just so, and remember the size of their personal communicators? No futorologist was able to predict the silicon microchip (which is now redundant having apparently reached its limit. Silicon valley is currently working out how to replace silicon with carbon atoms.)
Nano technology has already been predicted by science fiction writers. With in the last year I even saw a science programme predicting (non-self-replicating) nano robots which are injected into the body to physically destroy cancer cells.
Good Futorologists are intelligent extrapolators, but seem to be unable to predict random variables.. Some things can be seen by any person of moderate intellect: Things I predicted a full decade before they occurred; Collapse of the USSR, Global warming as major threat, seen around 1982. The emergence of China as THE dominant world power, before the middle this century; realised when I first visited in 1985 and saw the"special economic zones", which I thought were obviously an experiment. I was right. China seems ahead of schedule. great economic wealth brigs great power.
America seems bent on destroying itself by the comitment of its wealth on war rather on its citizens. I was reading that the Iraq War may well be The US's first TRILLION DOLLAR WAR. The mind boggles at what could have been domestically with that money.-OR indeed,given the innate generosity and kindness of Americans I've met,the good which could have been done in other countries.
I've long considered another major American depression inevitable. The US is the world's largest debtor.When the US economy gets into real trouble,there will be a world depression. I don't think flash point has yet been reached, but it's not all that far away. |
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