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Moloth
Coin Operated Boy
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josephpalazzo
Illusion Master
Joined: 30 Aug 2006
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 Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:04 pm Post subject: Re: Obama has no shot |
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| KL79 wrote: |
But I really believe most Americans are racist and there is no way in hell they are going to vote for Obama |
Sadly true on the first part --most Americans are racists -- but many of these racists will nevertheless vote for big O only so they can see a black guy fall under the oval office pressure. So, from that perspective, Big O has a fair to good chance of winning, and then it will fall on his shoulders to deliver. |
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gnosis
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:17 pm Post subject: Re: Obama has no shot |
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Thx for the RLY RL. I just love how people point to one completely inaccurate poll like AOL as "evidence". LOL!
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gnosis
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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I read the "Before and after" and I really don't see how a lot of these are "departures" from his original positions.
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Before:
"Obama believes the D.C. handgun law is constitutional."
—Unnamed Obama aide, Nov. 20, 2007.
Obama's camp has since said this is an inaccurate description of his stance. And yet he appears to have supported handgun bans in a 1996 questionnaire. (Obama denied that he filled out the questionnaire, but his handwriting appears on it.)
After:
"It looks to me that the D.C. handgun ban overshot the runway, that it went beyond constitutional limits. But it doesn't mean that local communities can't, you know, pass background checks, that they can't make sure that they're tracing guns that have been used in crimes to find out where they got them from."
—Obama, June 26, 2008 |
Whether or not I agree with his stance, an "unnamed Obama aide" and unverified "handwriting" are hardly evidence of a firm stance on this issue. There are many similar "Before" examples...
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Castaa
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:27 pm Post subject: |
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Here is the current collection of state polls. Since sadly our general election is "decided" by only about 10 states at this point in time in our history:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/battleground.html
Given these (albeit unreliable) numbers, Obama wins the general against McCain if it were today. And this isn't even taking into account Obama's likely significant campaign funding advantage. This won't fully kick in until after the nominating conventions.
Obama could of course lose by a land slide but something would have to change dramatically in the political landscape. Like another worse than 9/11 event or a significant Obama scandal.
Let's also remember, McCain is not a great politician or speaker. So much so, he's campaigning largely using "town hall" meetings which is a poor way to convince a large number of people in a country the size of the US. His upside is also limited by his own limitations in his ability to connect to the electorate. Have you listen to him speak at length about anything? He's pretty bad, especially compared to Obama. |
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josephpalazzo
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Joined: 30 Aug 2006
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Castaa wrote: | Here is the current collection of state polls. Since sadly our general election is "decided" by only about 10 states at this point in time in our history:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/battleground.html
Given these (albeit unreliable) numbers, Obama wins the general against McCain if it were today. And this isn't even taking into account Obama's likely significant campaign funding advantage. This won't fully kick in until after the nominating conventions.
Obama could of course lose by a land slide but something would have to change dramatically in the political landscape. Like another worse than 9/11 event or a significant Obama scandal.
Let's also remember, McCain is not a great politician or speaker. So much so, he's campaigning largely using "town hall" meetings which is a poor way to convince a large number of people in a country the size of the US. His upside is also limited by his own limitations in his ability to connect to the electorate. Have you listen to him speak at length about anything? He's pretty bad, especially compared to Obama. |
However if you look at the electoral votes -- the only ones that really count -- there are 120 in the toss up column...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/ |
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KL79
Royal Citizen
Joined: 16 Dec 2006
Posts: 458
Local time: 3:33 AM
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Castaa wrote: | Here is the current collection of state polls. Since sadly our general election is "decided" by only about 10 states at this point in time in our history:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/battleground.html
Given these (albeit unreliable) numbers, Obama wins the general against McCain if it were today. And this isn't even taking into account Obama's likely significant campaign funding advantage. This won't fully kick in until after the nominating conventions.
Obama could of course lose by a land slide but something would have to change dramatically in the political landscape. Like another worse than 9/11 event or a significant Obama scandal.
Let's also remember, McCain is not a great politician or speaker. So much so, he's campaigning largely using "town hall" meetings which is a poor way to convince a large number of people in a country the size of the US. His upside is also limited by his own limitations in his ability to connect to the electorate. Have you listen to him speak at length about anything? He's pretty bad, especially compared to Obama. |
I generally dont trust these polls that have a sampling or you cant vote in
This AOL poll http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/07/21/aol-straw-poll-july-21-28/ you can vote in and currently has 50,000+ votes and by the end of the week it will have several hundred thousand(they start it over every week), you are talking about several hundred thousand which is about .25 of 1% percent of the people who will vote in November(assuming 100 million people vote), that is a much better sampling then these biased surveys who sample maybe a few hundred or a few thousand people at the most who will be voting (and who knows who these people are, do you know anyone who has ever taken part in these?)
So far every week McCain is ahead by a landslide, by the end of last week he was up 66-34 and now he is up 69-31, and EVERY state McCain is a winner in, every state
I will say it again, McCain is going to win in a landslide, if Barrack was smart he would save all his money because he has no shot at winning(pains me to say) and it will prove how racist and how evil this country really is, as if the re-appointing of Bush in 04 didnt prove that
Last edited by KL79 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:35 pm; edited 4 times in total |
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Castaa
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:27 pm Post subject: |
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I'm certainly not saying McCain can't win. But given those number Obama needs just 15 out of 120 "toss up" electoral votes to win the general election. That's not exactly a tall task, especially given his funding/ground advantage has not kicked in yet.
But 3-4 months in major politics is a lifetime, so we'll have to see what happens in the coming months. I still think racism is might be Obama's most difficult obstruction to overcome. We are in uncharted waters here. Especially with "swing voters" who seem to be uninformed about most everything. I think something like 70% of the electorate says American is ready to elected a black President. Meaning ~30% might not vote for Obama simply because of his skin color. So I except the election to be quite close despite what the polls say nearing election day.  |
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madoba
Royal Citizen
Joined: 01 Feb 2006
Posts: 337
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 6:09 pm Post subject: |
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McCain's kicking ass in Ohio according to Rasmussen.
Rasmussen 07/21 - 07/21 sample 500 LV obama 42 McCain 52 McCain +10.0
and in the state of Pensylvainia that Realclear counts as leaning toward Obama,
McCain is just behind by 4% and throw in the Bradley effect and McCain wins.
Rasmussen 06/22 - 06/22 1000 LV 46 42 Obama +4.0
So I guess you can conclude these polls mean nothing in July.
But anyway I think Obama is peaking to early and when people start focusing on his views they will reject him.
Go Hillary in 20012!!!! |
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spartan123209
Forum Plebian
Joined: 25 Jun 2008
Posts: 135
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:21 pm Post subject: |
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I don't trust the AOL polls. It's the only poll I have seen where Obama or Paul are winning (I wonder what the Internet would look like if they teamed up  ).
And once Blue Collar voters really see both side's issues, they will come running towards the Obama camp.
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| Quote: | | Saying Atheism is a religion is like saying not collecting stamps is a hobby. |
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josephpalazzo
Illusion Master
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Moloth
Coin Operated Boy
Joined: 27 Aug 2003
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| Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:49 am Post subject: |
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shhh.. facts make people uncomfortable.
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Last edited by Moloth on Tue Feb 30, 2026 13:61 am; edited 426 times in total |
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Proximo
Forum Plebian
Joined: 15 Jan 2008
Posts: 276
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| Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 1:08 pm Post subject: |
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Electoral-vote.com was pretty much dead on in 2004. I always go and check them out.
http://electoral-vote.com/ |
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KL79
Royal Citizen
Joined: 16 Dec 2006
Posts: 458
Local time: 3:33 AM
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| Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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actually I remember checking that site constantly and it always had Kerry the leader even though it was always close, but it always had Kerry ahead |
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Proximo
Forum Plebian
Joined: 15 Jan 2008
Posts: 276
Local time: 4:33 AM
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| Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 4:56 pm Post subject: |
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| KL79 wrote: |
actually I remember checking that site constantly and it always had Kerry the leader even though it was always close, but it always had Kerry ahead |
Yes, and the election results came down to the state Ohio back in '04. |
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