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Castaa
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 Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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Once today is over, I have a strong hunch Clinton will "suspend" her campaign in the next week. By tomorrow Obama is expect to have the required minimum of 2118 elected/super delegates committed to his party's nomination for President. The party as a whole wants today or tomorrow to be the end of any lingering doubt that Obama is the unquestioned nominee. They want to give Clinton supporters the most amount of time to come to terms that a Hillary the first legitimate female candidate for President came up just short in a fair election.
I feel the primary reason Clinton has stayed in the race is that it increases her chances in event that Obama is engulfed in a semi-serious scandal before the Democratic convention occurs. She is finishing the race strong because it decreases the threshold of super delegates that would be required to switch from Obama to her if his electiblity damaged by an unforeseen scandal or negative event.
Frankly, I don't blame her one bit for doing this. She's just trying to win and if anything her struggles since Super Tuesday has made her more sympathetic and human candidate for the general election.
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Newman
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 1:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Castaa wrote: | Once today is over, I have a strong hunch Clinton will "suspend" her campaign in the next week. By tomorrow Obama is expect to have the required minimum of 2118 elected/super delegates committed to his party's nomination for President. The party as a whole wants today or tomorrow to be the end of any lingering doubt that Obama is the unquestioned nominee. They want to give Clinton supporters the most amount of time to come to terms that a Hillary the first legitimate female candidate for President came up just short in a fair election.
I feel the primary reason Clinton has stayed in the race is that it increases her chances in event that Obama is engulfed in a semi-serious scandal before the Democratic convention occurs. She is finishing the race strong because it decreases the threshold of super delegates that would be required to switch from Obama to her if his electiblity damaged by an unforeseen scandal or negative event.
Frankly, I don't blame her one bit for doing this. She's just trying to win and if anything her struggles since Super Tuesday has made her more sympathetic and human candidate for the general election. |
they tried hard here in PR, to get as many voters out to improve her speech on the popular vote, but the turn out was very low
EDIT: although she did win by a large margin
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Newman
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 4:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Philosophos wrote: | | Newman wrote: | | well...... if it turns out she does have the popular vote, things get interesting, although this has happen before (Al Gore) |
This is yet another example of Clinton twisting the facts.
If one counts all ballots that have the name "Clinton" on them, and all the ballots that have the name "Obama" on them, then it is true that Clinton has more popular votes than Obama. Sounds reasonable, right? But this argument rests on a lot of horrible assumptions.
First, ballots are not cast and counted in caucus states. Thus, Clinton's math completely ignores caucus voters. If you include estimates of caucus voters, then Clinton's claim that she's won the popular vote already dissolves.
But there's more. Clinton's math also counts Michigan, where Obama wasn't even on the ballot. Thus, her estimates include that state's votes for her, but gives Obama none.
Finally, she includes the votes received in Florida; a state where neither campaigned and both agreed that it would not count.
If you buy these three conditions, then Clinton's math adds up. I'll leave it for you to decide whether or not this is a fair assessment of the matter, however. |
This argument has it's validity. It is true that Clinton doesn't acknowledge the caucus vote, it doesn't benefit her seeing as how she has only won one caucus to date. If you take the voter turn out for the democrats in those caucus states, and divide the percentage of delegates received from the total delegates awarded you could find a number of Obama and Clinton supporters.
As for Michigan and Florida, the DNC rules committee made it's decision to seat all the delegates from those two states but only allow then a half vote. Basically each delegate is worth .5 of another whole delegate. The Florida compromise was agreed to by both campaigns. But the Michigan compromise is still being disputed by some in the Clinton campaign. They fell Clinton is being short changed. Obama has accepted the DNC rules committee decision even though he has not been awarded delegates from Michigan even though the second place 40% voted Uncomfirmed arguably supported him.
The race in Puerto Rico gave Clinton a small lead in the popular vote, this is true if you include the caucus states and Florida. No Michigan votes for Obama. However the popular vote lead in favor of Clinton is expected to dissapear after todays two final primaries where Obama is expected to win.
On a separate note, momentum, which the Clinton campaign has recently said is in their favor due to the recent primary result has been shifting in the super delegate counter, notable democrats have been switching allegiances in hopes of unifying the party and joining the Obama campaign, most notable is Rep. Maxine Walters which switched sides today. The undecideds are also trending for Obama, Rep. James Clyburn, the House Majority Whip just declared his intent to support Obama
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Knight_of_BAAWA
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:21 pm Post subject: |
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Why does the overall popular vote mean anything?
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Newman
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Knight_of_BAAWA wrote: | | Why does the overall popular vote mean anything? |
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Knight_of_BAAWA
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:26 pm Post subject: |
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Ok, now let's have a response from someone who isn't a 'tard.
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Moloth
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Knight_of_BAAWA wrote: | | Ok, now let's have a response from someone who isn't a 'tard. |
you do realize that he just quoted YOU, right? lol...
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Newman
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Knight_of_BAAWA wrote: | | Ok, now let's have a response from someone who isn't a 'tard. |
most votes = majority and under a perfect world that would mean being able to beat Mccain, not that the system is perfect
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Newman
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:28 pm Post subject: |
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| Moloth wrote: | | Knight_of_BAAWA wrote: | | Ok, now let's have a response from someone who isn't a 'tard. |
you do realize that he just quoted YOU, right? lol... |
 did not want to say it, as to not draw an argument
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Knight_of_BAAWA
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Knight_of_BAAWA wrote: | | Ok, now let's have a response from someone who isn't a 'tard. |
| Newman wrote: | | most votes = majority |
And why does that matter?
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aa #51, DNRC o-, Member of the [H]orde
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Newman
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 6:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Knight_of_BAAWA wrote: | | Knight_of_BAAWA wrote: | | Ok, now let's have a response from someone who isn't a 'tard. |
| Newman wrote: | | most votes = majority |
And why does that matter? |
why does having the majority of the votes should matter?
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Knight_of_BAAWA
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 6:05 pm Post subject: |
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You tell me.
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aa #51, DNRC o-, Member of the [H]orde
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Newman
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Knight_of_BAAWA wrote: | | You tell me. |
kind of simple in an election you would hope the person that wins has the most votes
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Knight_of_BAAWA
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 6:09 pm Post subject: |
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And yet we have individual state elections. So how is the overall vote applicable? Please explain.
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aa #51, DNRC o-, Member of the [H]orde
Atheist Minister for St. Dogbert.
"No being is so important that he can usurp the rights of another"
Picard to Data/Graves "The Schizoid Man" |
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Newman
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| Posted: Tue Jun 03, 2008 6:20 pm Post subject: |
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| Knight_of_BAAWA wrote: | | And yet we have individual state elections. So how is the overall vote applicable? Please explain. |
not in the general election no, its a measuring tool used at this point (primary) to sway superdelegates to steer towards a candidate. not sure why your getting your underwear in a bundle here?
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