Global Warming: The Rise of a New Religion

Gettin' In Tune · Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 9:45 pm Post subject:

A colder Antarctic interior may be explained by the Southern Annual Mode. This does not necessarily dismiss AGW models.

gnosis · Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:09 pm Post subject:

Knight_of_BAAWA · Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 10:21 pm Post subject:

Pekkle · Intern Joined: 21 Mar 2008 Posts: 72 Local time: 3:20 AM

Gettin' In Tune · Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2008 11:32 pm Post subject:

gnosis · Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 12:27 am Post subject:

Gettin' In Tune · Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 12:53 am Post subject:

There does seem to be a trend in AGW. The fluctuations are often regarded as natural influences. How do GW scientists demarcate AGW trends from natural influences is questionable and requires skepticism. I hope this is not practice in theory-ladenness and underdetermination. I am suspicious.

It is going to take another 10-20 years of scientific debate.

If the alarmists are correct, does science have another 10-20 years to bang this theory out on their anvil?

Pekkle · Intern Joined: 21 Mar 2008 Posts: 72 Local time: 3:20 AM

Gettin' In Tune · Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 3:06 am Post subject:

WashMDJD · Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:04 am Post subject:

Politically, though, oughtn't we decide our social action based upon precautions? If the majority of climate scientist believe that warming is occurring, whether they are right or not is something they can argue about, but shouldn't we act as though it were true?

After all, the consequences involved seem pretty dire (assmuming that the trends and forecasting are right).

When I think of GW, I think of it similarly to other potential disasters - like a comet smashing into the Earth. Suppose that tomorrow, astronomers identified a comet whose trajectory will carry it close to Earth. After a year's study, the majority of the astronomers say that the comet will strike the Earth in 2045 CE. There are a few mathematicians and astronomers who argue that the other astronomers are failing to account for a slight gravitational force which will cause the comet to pass harmlessly through another part of the solar system. The majority, though, says that while the impact is certain, we might be able to divert the comet by engaging in a series of activities.

Even if the minority of scientists that think the comet will pass harmlessly through another part of the solar system are found to be right in the long term, do we really want to sit on our backsides and do nothing and wait to see whose arguments finally win out 25 years from now? I'm more than comfortable having the social choice be in line with a precautionary principle. Start building what's required (a spaceship, say) now, and then we'll at least be prepared if it is true like the majority of learned minds on the topic currently believe. If they were right, we're prepared. If they were wrong, we sustained some minor losses (compared to the potential losses) and potentially opened up new fields of technology and innovation for other scientific and commercial applications.

GW (whether man-made or not) is believed to exist. While the scientists hammer away at each other trying to figure out which summers were the hottest (by whatever miniscule fraction of a degree), does it really kill us to bear some frankly fairly small, short-term losses? If we're wrong, then we bore some small losses and can rebound, being armed with new technologies, energy sources, and materials. If we were right, we may have just saved ourselves a hell of a lot of grief trying to make much larger course corrections when we don't have as much time to make them.
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Gettin' In Tune · Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:45 am Post subject:

AvauntVanguard · Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:24 am Post subject:

Knight_of_BAAWA · Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:51 am Post subject:

Knight_of_BAAWA · Posted: Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:53 am Post subject:

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